SPISpy

Market Has Lit Its Last Rock (of Crack)

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OK – so the DAX is up a little over 400 points in three sessions – apparently the Krauts are perfectly happy that their children’s labour is being sold off by a bunch of wog bureaucrats (Draghi and Monti), and they think that it’s all Schmiles und Sunschein from here on out. Alles ist gut – ze Woggo überbanksters are going to fix everytink mit die clever wog-bond-buying.

Now the Krauts are supposedly a pretty hard-headed lot: good engineers and so forth. They’re not known for being the most credulous bunch in the world, although they did fall for that little guy with a funny moustache in the early part of last century… what was his name again? Charlie Chaplin? No… Adolf something. You know the guy – he’s on the History Channel pretty much every day. Not a fan of the Red Sea Pedestrians, if memory serves.

Anyhow… let’s leave lapses like that aside. Everyone gets to make one big mistake per century.

The other thing that the Kraut market reveals in spades is trend-following that makes the Nasdaq traders from 1999 and 2000 seem positively contrarian by comparison. At turning points, you would swear that there’s nobody on the other side of the market in DAX futures/CFDs… the thing melts up (or down, at oversold extremes) 10, 15 points in twenty seconds, and can’t get a pullback for love nor money.

 

And just when you think that the trend will go on forever… something intervenes.

It’s kind of like how the whole “1000 Year Reich” schtick changed when someone pointed out that the Red Army artillery was on the outskirts of Berlin.

And so it will be when someone points out that France and Germany can’t afford to bail out their sun-drenched lazy Southern cousins (well Germany tout seul, in fact: France is as broke as Greece but nobody has the balls to make that call… yet).

For the moment, anybody who tries to short the DAX gets to feel the “hot buttered carrot” (or as Mav might say, the Gatorade Bottle of Doom up the Vord) for a while.

But let me say this: shorts taken any time after the first hundred points of the DAX’s post-post-Draghi bounce (i.e., any short taken with the market at 6651 or above) will eventually pay off. And once it waterfalls, it will happen in days.

OK… Bank That, Too…

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Remember back on July 12th I called for a BUY on EURUSD at 1.2172?  Bet y’all thought I was out of my god-damned mind.

Well, with EURUSD at about 1.2430 now, it’s time to bank that shit.

In the same post, I mentioned buying Gold at $1563; take half of that off too, now that it’s $50 higher.

SHORT DAX @ 6900

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Dammit – this post took too long to prepare – DAX is back below 6900 as I type this.

[UPDATE: it popped back above 6900 after I posted the post, so 6900 is a valid entry]

 

Anyhow: trade logic is as follows: do you think that all of Germany’s listed-stock problems go away even if the professional bullshit-artists like Draghi and Monti manage to force through some or other rescue fund for the incompetent Southern Europeans?

 

Seriously?

And when (note: I specifically did not write “if”) the problem spreads past Spain and Portugal, and ‘nek minnit‘ everyone’s talking about how France‘s CDS spreads have blown to new wides (and that’s coming, people)… what then?

 

Europe is done. The DAX should be about 500 points lower than it is, and heading downward. There is nothing that can be done to rescue Spain or Portugal or France’s public finances – when all there is to fund it is that increasingly-unwilling labour of Germans.

Buy EURAUD at 1.1747

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As with EURUSD’s ludicrously oversold “Dumb Money At Work” event last week, so too the fifth-decimal-place chasers have decided that AUD can only go up (relative to EUR, at least).

 

Every dickhead with access to an online Forex account thinks he’s a genius jumping on the same direction as a trend that is the most oversold (basis EURAUD) that it’s been in years.

 

As with the EURUSD call, look to double your dough.

Buy EURUSD at 1.2172

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Every retarded 5th-decimal-place chaser in the world has decided to slam short on EURUSD (of course ,they decide this after the Euro is 25 handles off its high, and 120 pips of its recent swing high… at which point you could not find a pullback for money nor jam).

EURUSD will gut them just as it gutted the same sort of fucktard who was slamming into the offer up above 1.25…

 

Likewise, Gold. Seriously? Gold’s weak? Oh, well I guess that means that the political shitbags have got a solution for the fuckups that keep emerging: from PFG, MFG, Madoff, RepCo, Enron, LIBOR, WorldCom, Greece, Spain, France… and QEn, n=1,…,∞ : of course! Makes sense. They’ve got it sorted, so there won’t be ‘beggar thy neighbour’ printing, and so there’s less risk of future inflation today, than there was yesterday or the day before.

 

Seriously? Someone’s going to try to run that shit up the flagpole? Sorry, no sale.

So get on the ‘wrong’ side of the GOld market too – be a buyer at 1563 (basis XAUUSD) and ride that sucker up a couple hundred bucks.

OK – An Hour Has Passed…

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Short DAX at 6678 (it’s way above that now, but exactly one hour after the last post it was 6678, so let’s be fair).

OK – Bank That…

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OK, so the other day I made it pretty clear what I thought about the post-Sarko hissy-fit by the Euro-bankster class:

I’m buying Gold (at $1633), DAX (at 6595) and SPI (at 4337) – just for a dead-cat bounce from this pathetic over-reaction to the replacement of one Frog career-parasite with another.

And where do we sit today… well, Gold is above $1643, the SPI is above 4390, and the DAX is above 6640. So I’m closing all of those (having ridden the Gatorade Bottle of Doom Up the Vord during Monday night’s session). Using standard futures margins, each of those positions returned a 20% gain on margin in three days. Easier that shelling peas.

Now, look to short DAX on the next primary overbought – it’s already hugely overbought on the hourly, so give it another hour and ride that shit down 50 points.

Sarko

Load It Up, Lads…

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Europe’s bankster class is behaving like a pack of spoilt children – boo fucking hoo, you prats… so the Frog populace has had a gutful of your little Frog Goblin-Dwarf “Mini-Me” Sarkozy. Get over it.

 

I’m buying Gold (at $1633), DAX (at 6595) and SPI (at 4337) – just for a dead-cat bounce from this pathetic over-reaction to the replacement of one Frog career-parasite with another.

 

Although there’s still some faint hope that the King of the Frog Dwarves might still pull his agates out of the fire, I must say… va te faire foutre, pauvre con.

World01

Freebie Update: Take Some DAX Profits, Baby…

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We Own This, MotherfuckersWell, it's been almost an hour since the Freebie, and wouldn't you just know it, the DAX has given us 80 points of profit already (see the Freebie post – short from 6315, now 6235).

Freebie: Short EURUSD (or AUDUSD) At Will

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Dummies are lining up to buy AUDUSD an EURUSD – despite the fact that both have risen by over 200 pips in the last session and a half.

Given how close we are to a short-term top in stocks (i.e., VERY close – I shorted Dow futures at 10808, and DAX at 6315, five minutes ago), it is a slam-dunk that both EUR and AUD will retrace at least 2 full handles by the end of this week. Likewise, don't be shocked if the Dow drops 300 points between now and next Tuesday; it really is now being driven by the nuffnuffs and the algos (algos are nuffnuffs too – an electronic herd is just as stupid as a human herd).

 

For the record: shorting Dow 10808, DAX 6315, AUDUSD 0.9722 and EURUSD 1.3620 (yeppers, I'm doin' all of the above).

Considering that the last long call on AUD was at 0.6711, I reckon we've got some slack to play with, yeah?

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