USRant for Monday Feb 1st 2010

Further to what I mentioned about the fake GDP numbers released by the United Soviet States of America…  ZeroHedge has a nice précis of Rosenberg's take on it. No idea who Rosenberg is, but having read three or four bits of his stuff (reprised on ZH) he seems to have his head outside his arse, which is a start for any analyst.

So anyway… once you read the rest of today's Ranty genius brain-turd, make sure you read Rosenberg's explanation as to why the final print for US Q4 GDP will be what your Beloved GT said the day the data was released… i.e., between 2.2% and 2.5%. Rosenberg's piece is pretty much what I would have written if I could have been bothered.

Over the last few days, you might have noticed odd things – the Rants appearing slightly later than usual, and sometimes doubling-up; there is a problem with the auto-post feature and I have had to post them by hand.

The way the Rants work is that all of the tables and descriptive malakies gets generated automagically by a script that runs in cron… I write the prefatory waffle in a separate file which sits on the server and gets picked up by the cron job, sticky-taped in the right spot, and then the whole shebang gets sent to a doohickey that's supposed to publish it to the right interwebs hole.

That last step – the publishing-doohickey bit – seems to be buggered at the moment; I am working on it today.

Anyway – back to the markets.

The following economic data was released during the session:

• Core Personal Consumption Expenditure – Prices Index m/m for December was released in the US; the outcome was 0.1% adding 0.1% from the prior reading of 0.0%, – less than the consensus estimate of 0.1%.
• Core Personal Consumption Expenditure – Prices Index y/y for December was released in the US; the outcome was 1.5% adding 0.1% from the prior reading of 1.4%, – in line with the market's pre-release guess of 1.5%.
• Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator for Dec was released in the US; the series posted a reading of 2.1% an increase of 0.6% from the prior reading of 1.5% – less than the market's pre-release guess of 2.2%.
• Personal Consumption Expenditures m/m for Dec was released in the US; the series posted a reading of 0.2% falling 0.5% from the prior reading of 0.7% – in line with the pre-release guess of 0.2%.
• Personal Income m/m for Dec was released in the US; the result was 0.4% declining 0.1% from the prior reading of 0.5% – above the consensus estimate of 0.3%.
• Construction Spending m/m for Dec was released in the US; the series posted a reading of -1.2% declining 0.6% from the prior reading of -0.6% – less than the market's pre-release guess of -0.4%.
• ISM Manufacturing for Jan was released in the US; the outcome was 58.4 gaining 3.5 from the prior reading of 54.9, – above the market's pre-release guess of 55.5.

Headline Indices

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained +118.20 points (1.17%) to 10185.53 points. The index high for the day was 10190.59, while the low was 10068.91.

Total volume traded in the 30 components of the index was 925.61m shares. Advancers outpaced decliners by 8.7 to one, with 26 advancers to 3 decliners. Advancing volume exceeded declining volume by 907.66m to 17.96m shares. The biggest gainers (percentage-wise) were -

• Alcoa (AA) +0.63 (4.9%) to $13.36 on volume of 37.42m shares;
• Du Pont (DD) +1.05 (3.2%) to $33.66 on volume of 6.45m shares;
• Exxon-Mobil (XOM) +1.75 (2.7%) to $66.18 on volume of 37.22m shares;
• McDonalds (MCD) +1.46 (2.3%) to $63.89 on volume of 7.74m shares; and
• Chevron (CVX) +1.46 (2%) to $73.58 on volume of 11.15m shares.

The S&P500 Index gained +15.31 points (1.43%) to 1089.18 points..

Total volume traded in the 500 components of the index was 3.4bn shares. Advancers outpaced decliners by 9.5 to one, with 427 advancers to 45 decliners. Advancing volume exceeded declining volume by 3.07bn to 321.42m shares. The biggest gainers (percentage-wise) were -

• Liz ClaiborneInc. (LIZ) +0.49 (10.1%) to $5.36 on volume of 3.34m shares;
• Massey Energy Company (MEE) +3.06 (7.9%) to $41.58 on volume of 5.14m shares;
• NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) +1.18 (7.7%) to $16.57 on volume of 22.07m shares;
• Allegheny Technologies Inc (ATI) +3.03 (7.4%) to $43.88 on volume of 2.08m shares; and
• Freeport-McMoran Cp & Gld (FCX) +4.9 (7.3%) to $71.59 on volume of 24.09m shares.

The Nasdaq Composite added +23.85 points (1.11%) to 2171.20 points. while the Nasdaq100 rose +19.68 points (1.13%) to 1760.72 points..

Total volume traded in the 100 components of the index was 835.85m shares. Advancers outpaced decliners by 12.9 to one, with 90 advancers to 7 decliners. Advancing volume exceeded declining volume by 772.45m to 63.4m shares. The biggest gainers (percentage-wise) were -

• Leap Wireless International (LEAP) +1.728 (13.1%) to $14.918 on volume of 9.33m shares;
• NVIDIA (NVDA) +1.18 (7.7%) to $16.57 on volume of 22.07m shares;
• Marvell Technology Group (MRVL) +1.12 (6.4%) to $18.55 on volume of 15.48m shares;
• Akamai Technologies (AKAM) +1.48 (6%) to $26.18 on volume of 4.67m shares; and
• Virgin Media (VMED) +0.85 (6%) to $15.04 on volume of 8.51m shares.

Volatility

The CBOE Volatility Index lost 2.02 points (8.2%) to 22.60 points. and the CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index dipped 1.46 points (5.66%) to 24.34 points..

Breadth and Internals

A total of 3934 issues traded today on the NYSE; today's total volume was 4.58bn shares. A total of 2966 stocks posted gains for the day, and volume in advancing issues totalled 3.88bn shares. Exerting downwards pressure on the index were 858 losers, which accounted for a total declining volume of 0.67bn shares. 80 stocks made new 1-year highs on the NYSE, while 37 shares plumbed new 52-week depths.

On the Nasdaq 2818 tickers traded today; total Nasdaq volume was 2.11bn shares. A total of 1698 stocks posted gains for the day, with aggregate volume of 1.69bn shares changing hands in the day's winners. The red zone of the Nasdaq exchange comprised 1003 losers, and total declining volume was 0.4bn shares. 33 Nasdaq-listed stocks hit new 52-week highs, while 24 shares dipped to new 1-year lows.

Dow Darlings

• Alcoa (AA) +0.63 (4.9%) to $13.36 on volume of 37.4m units
• Du Pont (DD) +1.05 (3.2%) to $33.66 on volume of 6.4m units
• Exxon-Mobil (XOM) +1.75 (2.7%) to $66.18 on volume of 37.2m units
• McDonalds (MCD) +1.46 (2.3%) to $63.89 on volume of 7.7m units
• Chevron (CVX) +1.46 (2%) to $73.58 on volume of 11.2m units

Dow Duds:

• Disney Corp (DIS) -0.03 (0.1%) to $29.52 on volume of 10.1m units
• 3M Co (MMM) -0.05 (0.1%) to $80.44 on volume of 3.5m units

Most Traded Dow stocks:

• Bank Of America (BAC) +0.24 (1.6%) to $15.42 on volume of 157.4m units
• Microsoft (MSFT) +0.23 (0.8%) to $28.41 on volume of 84.8m units
• General Electric (GE) +0.17 (1.1%) to $16.25 on volume of 54.1m units
• Intel (INTC) +0.21 (1.1%) to $19.61 on volume of 44.8m units
• Alcoa (AA) +0.63 (4.9%) to $13.36 on volume of 37.4m units

Precious Metals

Precious metals futures performed as follows -

The Gold Bugs index (XAU) gained 8.2 points (5.54%) to 156.13 points. Total volume traded in the 16 components of the index was 95.91m shares. Not a single stock declined withinin the index: 16 of the 16 index components rose, with total upside volume of 95.91mshares. The biggest gainers (percentage-wise) were -

• Silver Wheaton (SLW) +1.13 (8.2%) to $14.89 on volume of 6.73m shares;
• Coeur d'Alene (CDE) +1.15 (8.2%) to $15.17 on volume of 2.57m shares;
• Freeport McMoran (FCX) +4.9 (7.3%) to $71.59 on volume of 24.09m shares;
• Harmony Gold (HMY) +0.59 (6.4%) to $9.76 on volume of 3.31m shares; and
• Pan-American Silver (PAAS) +1.35 (6.4%) to $22.54 on volume of 1.24m shares.

Energy Complex

Energy futures performed as follows -

The Oil Services index (OSX) advanced 6.95 points (3.61%) to 199.69 points. Total volume traded in the 15 components of the index was 68.91m shares. Not a single stock declined withinin the index: 15 of the 15 index components rose, with total upside volume of 68.91mshares. The biggest gainers (percentage-wise) were -

• Nabors Industries (NBR) +1.25 (5.6%) to $23.55 on volume of 5m shares;
• Halliburton (HAL) +1.44 (4.9%) to $30.65 on volume of 13.34m shares;
• Baker Hughes (BHI) +2.05 (4.5%) to $47.33 on volume of 5.03m shares;
• Weatherford International (WFT) +0.66 (4.2%) to $16.34 on volume of 12.94m shares; and
• Smith International (SII) +1.26 (4.2%) to $31.58 on volume of 3.62m shares.

Currency Futures

Currency futures performed as follows -

Bellwethers

The nine-stock group that makes up the Rant bellwethers advanced on average by 2%. The fallout occurred as follows:

• General Electric (GE) +0.17 (1.06%) to $16.25 on volume of 54.15m units.
• Citigroup (C) +0.02 (0.6%) to $3.34 on volume of 229.91m units.
• Wal-Mart (WMT) +0.05 (0.09%) to $53.48 on volume of 10.31m units.
• IBM (IBM) +2.28 (1.86%) to $124.67 on volume of 6.94m units.
• Intel (INTC) +0.21 (1.08%) to $19.61 on volume of 44.81m units.
• Cisco Systems (CSCO) +0.26 (1.16%) to $22.73 on volume of 51.8m units.
• Google (GOOG) +3.076 (0.58%) to $533.02 on volume of 2.1m units.
• Fannie Mae (FNM) +0.07 (7.29%) to $1.03 on volume of 17.03m units.
• Freddie Mac (FRE) +0.05 (4.24%) to $1.23 on volume of 7.26m units.

Other Indices of Interest…

The Banks index (BKX) gained 0.66 points (1.42%) to 47.2 points. Total volume traded in the 24 components of the index was 627.62m shares. Advancers outpaced decliners by 6.3 to one, with 19 advancers to 3 decliners. Advancing volume exceeded declining volume by 605.75m to 21.87m shares. The biggest gainers (percentage-wise) were -

• Zions Bancorp (ZION) +0.95 (5%) to $19.92 on volume of 6.56m shares;
• Regions Financial (RF) +0.29 (4.6%) to $6.64 on volume of 29.32m shares;
• Northern Trust (NTRS) +1.65 (3.3%) to $52.17 on volume of 1.63m shares;
• State Street (STT) +1.28 (3%) to $44.16 on volume of 4.49m shares; and
• Comerica Inc (CMA) +0.94 (2.7%) to $35.45 on volume of 2.52m shares.

The Semiconductor index (SOX) was unchanged at 0 points. Total volume traded in the 18 components of the index was 215.41m shares. Advancers outpaced decliners by 16 to one, with 16 advancers to 1 decliners. Advancing volume exceeded declining volume by 192.85m to 22.56m shares. The index's rather boring situation arose as a result of a mixed bag of results, the most notable amongst these (in percentage terms) being -

• Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) +0.52 (7%) to $7.98 on volume of 25.14m shares;
• Marvell Technology (MRVL) +1.12 (6.4%) to $18.55 on volume of 15.48m shares;
• Micron Technology (MU) +0.45 (5.2%) to $9.17 on volume of 18.82m shares;
• Linear Technology (LLTC) +0.94 (3.6%) to $27.04 on volume of 5.06m shares; and
• KLA-Tencor Cp (KLAC) +0.99 (3.5%) to $29.19 on volume of 6.36m shares.

The ChildKiller ("Defence") index (DFX) added 4.4 points (1.35%) to 329.22 points. Total volume traded in the 17 components of the index was 83.13m shares. Not a single stock declined withinin the index: 16 of the 17 index components rose, with total upside volume of 83.13mshares. The biggest gainers (percentage-wise) were -

• General Dynamics (GD) +2.58 (3.9%) to $69.43 on volume of 3.47m shares;
• Esterline Tech (ESL) +1.27 (3.4%) to $39.03 on volume of 0.37m shares;
• Northrop Grummanl (NOC) +1.32 (2.3%) to $57.92 on volume of 3.22m shares;
• Boeing (BA) +1.1 (1.8%) to $61.7 on volume of 5.54m shares; and
• Rockwell Collins (COL) +0.85 (1.6%) to $54.04 on volume of 0.82m shares.