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Economic & Market News Feed

Contains aggregated material sourced from places we think are interesting… primarily Economic and Company news, but sometimes gets as wild and woolly as the MarketMentat deli.cio.us feed…

 

Nufarm likely to face class action 18 hours ago

NQM takeover battle takes another twist 18 hours ago

Australia shares end firmer; banks slip, Andean soars 18 hours ago

Qantas facing payback of commissions 18 hours ago

NZ sharemarket rises for third straight 18 hours ago

MG sells 2.3m Sims Metal shares 19 hours ago

UBS increases Guildford Coal stake 19 hours ago

MG sells 2.3m Sims Metal shares 19 hours ago

UBS increases Guildford Coal stake 19 hours ago

Business calls for carbon tax intensify 19 hours ago

Environmentalists say too much heavy industry in area as approval given to plant 19 hours ago

US mutual recognition a long way off 19 hours ago

Hogan free to leave Australia 19 hours ago

Wind up order sought on Great South Land Minerals 19 hours ago

Angueline Investments buys 134k Berklee shares 19 hours ago

Tat Hong has 96.36% of Tutt Bryant 20 hours ago

The Capital Group diluted to 4.84% of Mineral Deposits 20 hours ago

UBS Nominees increases Keybridge stake 20 hours ago

The Capital Group sells 3.1m Billabong shares 20 hours ago

Corom buys 1.2m Ross Human Directions shares 21 hours ago

Filed under News · Tagged with

Watchlist

Filed under WatchList · Tagged with

Model Portfolios

The MarketMentat Model Portfolios represent a further development of the highly-successful Model Portfolios developed by our Beloved GT when he was Head of Equities at InvestorWeb (later IWL).

Those of you who were viewers back in those old days, will recall that the IWL Model Portfolios routinely outperformed their benchmarks, while simultaneously reducing volatility. The team was particularly good at showing small companies experts how it was done.

GT's additional work has involved putting a hedging layer (genuine hedging, not mickey-mouse leveraged punting), to hedge away broad market risk at times when the market was displaying 'non constructive' sentiment and technical configurations.

Stock selection has also been refined.

In reading what appears below, bear in mind that GT made the explicit decision to leave hedges in place when he called the impending bounce back on February 22nd; yet the MM Model Portfolios are so far ahead of benchmark that we don't even have to bother with the dividend calculations.

Large-Caps

This portfolio is selected from the larger end of the market capitalisation scale within the ASX200; its benchmark is the ASX200 Accumulation Index.

As with all the MarketMentat Model Portfolios, subscribers have the opportunity to implement our built-in hedging strategy, which seeks to limit market exposure when markets are exibiting technical signs of a sentiment extreme. It is currently fully hedged: hedges take the form of short SPI contracts, short CFDs, or covered calls, depending on the size of the usr’s portfolio.

ASXCode Date Added Price PER Yield Debt/Equity Price/NTA %Change Portfolio Share Contribution
ANZ 2008-07-14 17.8 8 7.64 1639.6 1.77 30.84 0.2 6.17
CSR 2008-07-14 2.08 11 7.21 44.6 2.42 -15.38 0.05 -0.77
FGL 2008-07-14 4.45 11 5.62 458.2 8.09 36.4 0.2 7.28
LNN 2008-07-14 8.4 16 4.88 150.8 -16.8 36.43 0.1 3.64
MQG 2008-07-14 49.8 7 6.93 0 1.77 -25.72 0.3 -7.72
TEN 2008-07-14 1.44 4 9.72 0 -3.27 -0.69 0.05 -0.03
TOL 2008-07-14 6.57 3 3.73 106 2.45 -3.81 0.1 -0.38

Aggregate capital gain on portfolio since 2008-07-14: 8.19 %

Aggregate capital gain on benchmark since 2008-07-14: -7.72 %


Mid-Caps

This portfolio is selected from the ASX mid-cap 50; its benchmark is the ASX Mid-Cap 50 Accumulation Index. This portfolio is currently 100% hedged against market risk.

ASXCode Date Added Price PER Yield Debt/Equity Price/NTA %Change Portfolio Share Contribution
BEN 2008-07-14 9.63 11 6.44 1923.6 1.67 -8 0.2 -1.6
BLD 2008-07-14 4.88 10 6.97 69 1.12 -4.71 0.1 -0.47
CPU 2008-07-14 8.61 15 2.21 0 -6.15 12.2 0.2 2.44
CTX 2008-07-14 12.71 5 6.29 23.8 1.25 -10.39 0.15 -1.56
DJS 2008-07-14 2.86 11 8.39 0 2.75 81.47 0.15 12.22
ERA 2008-07-14 23.96 60 0.83 0 7.49 -43.61 0.2 -8.72

Aggregate capital gain on portfolio since 2008-07-14: 2.31 %

Aggregate capital gain on benchmark since 2008-07-14: -14.09 %


Small-Caps

This portfolio is selected from the entire market, with a focus on small stocks, subject to a liquidity requirement (that the stock must average $250k in turnover in the 20 days prior to its inclusion in the portfolio).

The benchmark for this portfolio is the ASX Small Ordinaries Accumulation Index. This portfolio is currently 100% hedged against market risk.

ASXCode Date Added Price PER Yield Debt/Equity Price/NTA %Change Portfolio Share Contribution
AVE 2008-07-14 1.86 8 4.84 0 0.9 -8.33 0.13 -1.08
CDD 2008-07-14 3.7 9 6.89 0 3.22 16.22 0.22 3.57
DWS 2008-07-14 0.94 7 11.17 0 4.7 80.85 0.15 12.13
GUD 2008-07-14 7.65 13 8.37 61.8 15 29.41 0.2 5.88
SOT 2008-07-14 0.175 2 13.71 59 0.55 834.29 0.15 125.14
WHG 2008-07-14 1.06 9 5.66 103.1 6.62 -1.89 0.15 -0.28

Aggregate capital gain on portfolio since 2008-07-14: 145.36 %

Aggregate capital gain on benchmark since 2008-07-14: -12.82 %


Yield

This portfolio is selected from the entire market, with the aim of identifying high-yielding stocks who yield is sustainable (and whose price has a better than average chance of appreciation). As always, this is subject to a liquidity requirement (that the stock must average $250k in turnover in the 20 days prior to its inclusion in the portfolio).

The benchmark for this portfolio is the ASX All Ordinaries Accumulation Index. This portfolio is currently 100% hedged against market risk.

ASXCode Date Added Price PER Yield Debt/Equity Price/NTA %Change Portfolio Share Contribution
HHV 2008-07-14 0.815 10 9.82 0 0.8 -1.23 0.1 -0.12
MCW 2008-07-14 0.755 3 20.66 25.3 0.39 -22.52 0.2 -4.5
MGR 2008-07-14 2 3 16.33 68.8 0.5 -30.5 0.3 -9.15
MRZ 2008-07-14 0.41 10 25.66 0 0.29 46.34 0.1 4.63
PRG 2008-07-14 3.33 10 6.01 77 8.76 -36.94 0.2 -7.39
SFH 2008-07-14 0.805 5 13.66 17.3 10.06 57.76 0.1 5.78

Aggregate capital gain on portfolio since 2008-07-14: -10.75 %

Aggregate capital gain on benchmark since 2008-07-14: -8.59 %


Fundamental valuations are based on the trailing twelve months’ data as at the date of the stock’s inclusion into the Model Portfolios

Filed under LargeValue, MidCap, Model Portfolios, SmallCaps, Yield · Tagged with

MarketMentat News Search


Note: Selecting All Stocks will result in slow query execution.

ASXCode(leave blank for all):
 
Time Period
Select:
 
Sensitivity
“Price-Sensitive” Only
All Headlines
Key Terms
All Terms
SPP/Share Purchase
Financial Reports
Registry Events
Custom Search String:

This tool enables searching for ASX Company Announcements over a specified timeframe, with or without a set of constraints regarding the headline content.

Available constraints include the ability to restrict the results to include only those announcements which were declared by the Company to be “Price Sensitive”.

Further restrictions are possible by the use of a keyword search within the headline that accompanied the ASX Announcement release. This set of restrictions is independent of the “Sensitive Only” restriction. Thus if a user searches for “Share Registry” events, they can still restrict that results set to only include Registry events that were considered Price-Sensitive by the Company.

A brief note regarding the individual pre-programmed search terms:

  • Corporate Actions will search for a range of terms related to Share Purchase Plan (SPP) announcements and their precursors (e.g., Placements, which often presage a later SPP). These corporate actions are a significant potential source of discounted share entitlements, however it is always essential to act in order to become an entitled shareholder prior to the record date for entitlement.
  • Financial Reports includes all Activity Reports, Commitments Test Entity Reports, Annual and Half-Yearly Reports, Cash Flow Statements, Market Updates and other regulatory filings.
  • Registry Events includes all announcements related to changes in the size and composition of the company’s share registry – Substantial Shareholder changes, Directors’ Interests, Options Issue/Exercise/Cancellation, Appendix 3(B), and other related items.
  • Custom Search String – enter a keyword string (using only alphanumeric characters a-z, A-Z, and 0-9) and the Company’s headlines for that term will be extracted.

Filed under Announcements · Tagged with

Subscriber Content.

 

The page you have tried to access is in the process of being repopulated as part of the implementation of the new content system. This process – which coincides with updating of the fundamental database – should be completed in the next day or so (15-16 September 2009).

From time to time we have an ‘Open Day’ during which non-subscribers can access selected (dated) research in order to establish whether they feel that a subscription is worth the $5 a week that we charge for an annual subscription.

Our next Open Day will be sometime early next month. If you subscribe today, you will receive access to the complete research array tomorrow – failing that you will be able to make an assessment of the merits or otherwise of our research by reference to dated material.

Our subscriptions are refundable within one month of subscription in the event that you don’t feel that the material is state of the art investment research.

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Filed under Breadth, CoD, Commodities, Components, FuturesFocus · Tagged with

Stock Workbench


Select Code

Please Enter an Stock Code in the Selector Above

At present, you have not selected a Stock Code; in order to select the objective of your analysis, enter the stock code in the text box.


 

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ASX Equities Analysis – Overview

There are (roughly) 1700 individual stocks listed on the Australian Stock Exchange; that’s a huge selection universe for potential investors.

The companies listed range from first-tier money centre banks and international resource majors, through to highly speculative, thinly traded resource exploration stocks.

Our StockMentat workbench enables subscribers to assess each stock on its merits, comparing core fundamental and technical parameters with our internal benchmarks.

Stocks are then compared against their industry-level peers (by ‘peer’ we mean stocks in the same market capitalisation range as the stock in question), and then against those stock in the industry group that rate best on our metrics.

The over-riding aim is to take a Syncretic approach to investment analysis; analysis is not solely about "fundamentals", nor is it solely about "technicals". It is a blend of both, with an understanding of sentiment analysis, risk management and portfolio construction, thrown in for good measure.

We also pay attention to a broader economic outlook for key variables (among these, interest rates, currency movements, consumption spending, fixed capital investment, and export demand). This helps inform us about potential threats to industry groups (and individual stocks) based on their exposure to these ‘key senstivities’. (So a stock may be undervalued on the face of the fundamentals, and oversold on the technicals, but still be avoided due to impending economic circumtances to which it is vulnerable).

We are also on the lookout for subtle signs that are given to us by movements in ‘market internals’ – Market Breadth (e.g., advance-decline ratios), volume breadth and so on. Our daily Index Breadth analysis covers every major ASX Index (from the 20-leaders through to the All Ordinaries) plus all the GICS Sector Indices, plus our own Industry-level indices.

Filed under Stocks · Tagged with

Top Ten Lists

The stocks listed in the table below have been viewed particularly favourably by our analysis process; we expect that they have the valuation and technical attributes that favour outperformance relative to the broader market

Top Ten Buys

ASXCode Date Added Price PER Yield Debt/Equity Price/NTA %Change
AMP 2009-02-26 4.89 10 195.4 9.82 11.64 6.54
CSR 2009-02-26 1.02 7 44.6 14.71 1.23 72.55
FLT 2009-02-26 4.31 3 33 19.95 2.17 392.11
HDF 2009-02-26 1.27 1000 82.5 22.05 0.54 14.57
IIF 2009-02-26 0.092 3 50.3 155.43 0.04 416.3
MAH 2009-02-26 0.335 4 101.3 16.42 0.82 85.07
MCW 2009-02-26 0.115 2 25.3 130.43 0.06 408.7
SPN 2009-02-26 1.085 17 168.1 10.79 1.09 -20.74
VMG 2009-02-26 0.185 1 18.1 54.05 0.36 148.65
WES 2009-02-26 16.82 9 91.4 11.89 -11.07 99.76

Fundamental valuations are based on the trailing twelve months’ data as at the date of the stock’s inclusion into the Top Ten lists


Top Ten Sells

The stocks listed in the table below are viewed unfavourably by our analysis process; we expect that they have the valuation and technical attributes that are likely to lead them to fall in value on an absolute basis, and to underperform the broader market.

ASXCode Date Added Price PER Yield Debt/Equity Price/NTA %Change
CSL 2009-02-26 38.26 30 75.8 1.2 11.12 -13.49
CTO 2009-02-26 0.235 1000 2.1 0 0 -55.32
FGL 2009-02-26 5.62 97 458.2 4.67 10.04 8.01
IAG 2009-02-26 3.33 1000 61.6 6.76 3.58 4.2
LGL 2009-02-26 3.27 89 0 0 2.57 37
MAE 2009-02-26 0.32 1000 0.1 0 0 -88.44
NWS 2009-02-26 10.5 14 146 0.49 0 54.29
RMD 2009-02-26 6.23 42 12.8 0 5.46 -44.46
RMS 2009-02-26 0.61 169 0 0.82 0 4.1
TCL 2009-02-26 4.5 1000 220.1 8.89 1.44 11.11

Fundamental valuations are based on the trailing twelve months’ data as at the date of the stock’s inclusion into the Top Ten lists. A PER of 1000 indicates that the company posted a loss for the trailing twelve months.

Filed under TopTen · Tagged with

herb-aweigh