Posts tagged Kurzweil

Rage, Rage Against the Dying of the Light…

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OK, so here's the thing.

For some time now, your Beloved GT has had to – ahem – prioritise things other than the prefatory waffling that you always knew and loved.

As a result, there has been a certain 'dried up dogshit' flavour to the Rants for some time – the absence of twice-daily steaming mind-grogans has been a definite negative. The Rant-engine has been on auto-pilot and as a result it has been producing a rather mawkish stool… all numbers and tables and whatever-the-fuck.

That changes now, bitchez.

I've been going progressively crazier during my absence: from now on I am going to just fucking unleash the madness. 

When I say 'madness', I don't mean the sort of cartoon bullshit madness that is the life-essence of fucktards like Hannity and Palin and Huckabee and Netanyahoo and the rest of the primitive insane tribal motherfuckers.

The shit here – profanity laced and all – will be so fucking sharp you better not let it get near your pants or it will cut your dick clean off. Right the fuck off, and you won't feel it go – first you will even know is when you start to feel faint and notice a wet warmth in your groin.

 

The profanity is part of the thing; I and others are making it our personal fucking mission to move the language-ball.

We figure that the way to destroy the hate-capacity of various pejoratives, is to use the fuck out of them until they become meaningless. (And we're right, so if you think of objecting shut your fucking pie-hole).

So 'nigger', 'kike', 'gook'… 'faggot'… and especially 'retard' – all will fall by the wayside from over-use (the way 'anti-Semite' has been debased – these days all it does is help identify tribal lunatics… those who say it).

Retard redneck fuckwits will have to find out some other way to fling shit out of their cages.

So words will no longer mean what they mean:

  • 'shit' does not mean poo or grogan or bowel movement or stool; it just means 'this thing that I am talking about now'.
  • 'fuck' does not mean 'copulate' or 'have sex with' or anything like that. It just means 'the shit I just said? I totally fucking meant it';
  • 'bitch' does not mean a female dog or a woman of any sort – it has no gender. It's just someone who needs to shut the fuck up.
  • 'faggot' does not mean a homosexual or an ass-bandit or a poo-pusher; it just means someone who is bullshitting and risks being fucked up.

and so on… you know what I mean, bitch.

 

So anyway… this will help get rid of the chaff – the weak-ass bitches and faggots who care more about the politeness of a conversation than they do about whether or not they are implicitly supporting a fucking atrocity.

Anyone who objects to the word 'fuck' as obscene, but is not actively agitating to stop the political class from killing innocents, can go fuck themselves.

Once those faggots are gone, we can talk about useful shit – technology, human advancement, some super-interesting political shit.

And markets, obviously – you will see directional calls that will blow your fucking mind.

 

Of course, it's mostly going to be shit that conforms to my prejudices, but often I will use the opposing (stupid) viewpoint to introduce the topic.

With that by way of introduction, here's a forewarning of what I plan to write about tomorrow (or maybe in today's OzRant):

Our prevailing hypothesis here in mentatSpace is that the broad outlines of technological process on any other putative world, would be the same as they were here on Earth.

That has implications. We humans are about one generation away from becoming 'posthuman'; strong AI and so on will mean we would no longer require our fleshbags: they are inefficient, badly designed, and vulnerable to any conditions outside of a very narrow range (we die if it's too hot or cold, too wet or dry, too much radiation… and so on).

The important thing is the mind; that's where your personality is. The meatbag is a vehicle that enables the mind to feed itself from its surroundings; the mind will be able to to stored in microscopic AIs in due course, and will be able to be housed in much smaller, more robust and energy-efficient housings.

We will achieve post-fleshbag civilisation way before we achieve reliable manned insterstellar (or even interplanetary) spaceflight. When we are able 'to boldly go where no man has gone before' we will do it in nanoscopic vehicles that are mind-blowingly efficient… we won't have to worry aboutsituations in which Sulu (or Worf, or Rodney, or Rush) says 'shields are down to 35% – atmosphere is venting on decks 9 through 12' or any other such TV nonsense.

Now… if that's the case for us, it has some corollaries.

It is not sensible to think that ETs would have retained their fleshbags when there is a logical case for replacing them as soon as technically feasible. 

 

Aliens would become 'post-alien' before they developed reliable repeatable interplanetary flight, and so if they were ever to visit it would be in nano-scopic AI-capable vehicles.

The result of this is that anybody who talks about visitations by alien life forms who go around in fleshbags, is probably bullshitting or doesn't understand the interaction.

 

And here's where it gets insane… post-alienism also probably means that they could interface directly with the mind of any entity they chose to.

Voices in your head, bitch. (note – most voices in your head are still just lunacy… but some aren't)

If you are interested, get hold of a copy of "Transcendent Man", which is mostly about Ray Kurzweil (but contains loads of alternative viewpoints too); at the end he describes a process whereby post-human society sends nanobots with AI out into space, 'waking up the universe'. The universe has already had a few billion years head start… odds are that once we become aware enough, we will discover we are already awash in post-alien nanotech.

 

Seriously, that is a topic that would roast your brain if you had ever used DMT.

OzRant: Is Look Like Turd, Is Smell Like Turd…

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Boy O Boy, it’s starting to get interesting. When a career hack like Greensplatt admits he hasn’t got a clue how things function, your beloved GT starts to think that perhaps Greensplatt has had a visit from the Ghost of Hannukah Past and has been shown that in the not-too-distant future, people will spit on him in the streets.

As I have said often over the past 10 years, such an outcome would be no less than Mr Magoo deserves. He sat in his crony heaven – a government-provided sinecure – as the western world rode the benefits of a 20-year bull market in bonds (and stocks), and claimed those benefits as the natural outcome of his genius. This was the same post hoc ergo propter hoc analysis that makes journalists think that any economic upswing is caused by political interference in an economy, when in fact good things happen despite political distortion of the economy.

Journalists, schoolteachers and the congenitally dim accepted the "Maestro Magoo"  crapola as fact, and the hagiography was set in motion. And all the while, there were the Jeremiahs and Isaiahs of the intarwebs tubes, yelling that Emperor Maestro had no clothes.

That said, we are near to a short-term bottom. We could easily bounce 30% from here.

Why do I think that? Simple. Greenspan babbled yesterday about further downside – and if that guy ever had to back his opinions with his own money, he would be dead within a week. 

That said, Mr Magoo is the only contrarian indicator which is flashing ‘big bounce’ – everything else points to a continuation of the decline. So while ‘Fade Greenspan’s Big Calls’ has been something that has paid good dividends for over thirty years,  I think that this time he is going to prove useless even as a contrarian indicator. 

We are still in the formative stages of this event – as former parasite Paul Keating said the other day, the pain that started in earnest a year ago is going to last eight to ten years. 

If we take that fork, then a few things are easy to predict. By the time the dust has settled, we will have had at least one world war, the US will be at least 3 different countries, at least two European capitals will be reduced to sheets of glowing glass, and western society will have regressed much as it did between the end of the Western Roman Empire and the start of the Renaissance. (Note that this time is what we refer to as the Dark Ages, but they were dark only in Europe: culture flourished in the Islamic world and in Asia, advances in mathematics, philosophy and engineering were made, and we benefited from them starting in the mid 1300s.)

There is one thing that will save us from a new Dark Ages, and only one. 

That one thing is that we might be lucky enough to pass the inflection point on the ‘knee’ of our development curve, and attain the Kurzweilian idea of the Singularity, before we do too much more damage to our own civilisation.

Major Market Indices

The broad market – the All Ordinaries (XAO) – slid pretty savagely, posting a loss of 107.7 points (2.73%), finishing at 3831.6 points. The index hit an intraday high of 3987.8 at 10:00 am, while the low for the day was 3799.5 – set at 2:36 pm Sydney time. 

The last date on which the index closed at or below 3831 was November 11th 2004 – the same date on which the intraday low was lower than today.

Total volume traded on the ASX was 1.08bn units, 14.4% below its 10-day average. The ASX’s daily listing of all stocks included 1209 different 3-letter FPO’s which traded (i.e., had non-zero trade volume). Of these, 254 issues rose, with volume in rising issues totalling 171.7m units; decliners numbered 708 counters, and between them they traded aggregate declining volume of 836.5m shares.

Of the 494 All Ordinaries components, 97 rose while 325 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the losers by a margin of 4.8:1, with 138.76m shares traded in gainers while 662.42m shares traded in the day’s losers.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE’s Share Price Index Futures – the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) – dipped pretty savagely,rather savagely, losing 105 points (2.64%), closing out the session at 3869.4 points.

GT Intraday Chart
Name Close +/-(%)
All Ordinaries 3831.60 -107.70 (2.7%)
ASX 20 2325.20 -59.90 (2.5%)
ASX 50 3894.10 -94.20 (2.4%)
ASX 100 3182.60 -82.40 (2.5%)
ASX 200 3869.40 -105.00 (2.6%)
ASX 300 3847.70 -103.80 (2.6%)
ASX Mid-Cap 50 3563.50 -136.60 (3.7%)
ASX Small Ordinaries 1818.40 -70.90 (3.8%)

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market – the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) – was taken to the woodshed somewhat, sliding 59.9 points (2.51%), closing out the session at 2325.2 points.

The 21 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 134.45m units; only 3 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 12.31m shares. The 18 decliners had volume traded totalling 122.14m units. The three gainers within the index were

  • Newcrest Mining (NCM), +$0.44 (2.59%) to $17.45 on volume of 6.7 million shares;
  • CSL (CSL), +$0.87 (2.56%) to $34.89 on volume of 2.5 million shares; and
  • Brambles (BXB), +$0.09 (1.16%) to $7.84 on volume of 3.1 million shares.

On the less salubrious side of the big-cap fence, the following stocks were the worst-performed within the index:

  • Macquarie Group (MQG), -$3.25 (10.16%) to $28.75 on volume of 1.6 million shares;
  • Westfield Group (WDC), -$1.46 (9.86%) to $13.34 on volume of 17 million shares;
  • AMP (AMP), -$0.31 (5.17%) to $5.69 on volume of 4.4 million shares;
  • Suncorp-Metway (SUN), -$0.43 (4.88%) to $8.38 on volume of 2 million shares; and
  • Stockland (SGP), -$0.2 (4.63%) to $4.12 on volume of 9.9 million shares.

The ASX Small Ordinaries (XSO) had significantly worse day than its large-cap counterpart. The Small Ords was taken to the woodshed somewhat, sliding 70.9 points (3.75%), closing out the session at 1818.4 points.

Among the stocks that make up the Small Caps index, 51 index components finished to the upside, and of the rest, 136 closed lower for the session.

The 208 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 298.19m units: volume in the 51 gainers totalling 45.31m shares, with trade totalling 231.59m units in the index’s 136 declining components. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Arrow Energy (AOE), +$0.24 (12.06%) to $2.23 on volume of 5.6 million shares;
  • Molopo Australia Ltd (MPO), +$0.05 (11.76%) to $0.48 on volume of 1.5 million shares;
  • Australian Education Trust (AEU), +$0.03 (9.43%) to $0.29 on volume of 176.9 thousand shares;
  • Citigold Corporati
    on
    (CTO), +$0.02 (8.11%) to $0.20 on volume of 426.8 thousand shares; and
  • Oakton (OKN), +$0.17 (8.06%) to $2.28 on volume of 48.7 thousand shares.

In the red-zone of the little-stock index, the following list represents the biggest downers (in terms of percentage decline):

  • Minara Resources (MRE), -$0.16 (31.37%) to $0.35 on volume of 7 million shares;
  • Kagara Zinc (KZL), -$0.28 (27.09%) to $0.74 on volume of 2 million shares;
  • Allco Finance Group (AFG), -$0.03 (25.83%) to $0.09 on volume of 5.1 million shares;
  • Platinum Australia (PLA), -$0.15 (25.66%) to $0.42 on volume of 3.7 million shares; and
  • Record Realty (RRT), -$0 (25%) to $0.01 on volume of 2.2 million shares.

 

Index Changes
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
XAO All Ordinaries 3831.6 -107.7 -2.73 904.1m
XFL ASX 50 3894.1 -94.2 -2.36 290.3m
XJO ASX 200 3869.4 -105 -2.64 757.9m
XKO ASX 300 3847.7 -103.8 -2.63 847.1m
XMD ASX Mid-Cap 50 3563.5 -136.6 -3.69 270.4m
XSO ASX Small Ordinaries 1818.4 -70.9 -3.75 286.4m
XTL ASX 20 2325.2 -59.9 -2.51 124.5m
XTO ASX 100 3182.6 -82.4 -2.52 560.7m
Market Breadth
  ASX20 XTO XJO XAO XSO Market
Advances 3 23 42 97 51 254
Declines 18 71 148 325 136 708
Advancing Volume 12.3m 93.9m 118.3m 138.8m 45.3m 171.7m
Declining Volume 122.1m 399.1m 568.1m 662.4m 231.6m 836.5m
GICS Industry Indices

Among the 11 industry indices, 2 registered an advance for the session, the remaining 9 lost ground.

The best performing index was Information Technology (XIJ), which added 28.6 points (6.45%) to 471.8 points. The lone rising index component had volume amounting to 3.04m shares, while sole declining stock traded 0.22m units. The gainer:

  • Computershare (CPU), +$0.58 (7.32%) to $8.50 on volume of 3 million shares.

Second in the index leadership stakes was Healthcare (XHJ), which gained 118 points (1.37%) to 8704.5 points. The 9 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 10.24m units; 3 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 3.32m shares, while the 5 decliners had volume traded totalling 5.11m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Cochlear (COH), +$2.00 (3.77%) to $55.00 on volume of 329.3 thousand shares;
  • CSL (CSL), +$0.87 (2.56%) to $34.89 on volume of 2.5 million shares; and
  • Sonic Healthcare (SHL), +$0.30 (2.23%) to $13.74 on volume of 481.1 thousand shares.

The worst-performed index for the session was Property Trusts (XPJ), which dipped 111.9 points (10.28%) to 976.5 points. The 21 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 225.88m units; 18 index components fell, with downside volume totalling 160.65m units. Volume in the lone rising index component was 30.15m shares. The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • Macquarie Office Trust (MOF), -$0.19 (34.23%) to $0.37 on volume of 18.1 million shares;
  • Dexus Property Group (DXS), -$0.27 (23.04%) to $0.89 on volume of 15.1 million shares;
  • Abacus Property Group (ABP), -$0.11 (21.78%) to $0.40 on volume of 3.5 million shares;
  • Macquarie DDR Trust (MDT), -$0.03 (20%) to $0.12 on volume of 3.5 million shares; and
  • Babcock&Brown Japan Property Trust (BJT), -$0.08 (17.02%) to $0.39 on volume of 3.1 million shares.

Just missing out on the wooden spoon was Financials ex Property Trusts (XXJ), which slid 143.7 points (3.05%) to 4571.5 points. The 29 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 69.72m units. 25 of the 29 stocks fell, and downside volume was 65.71m units. Only 3 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 3.96m shares. The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • Allco Finance Group (AFG), -$0.03 (25.83%) to $0.09 on volume of 5.1 million shares;
  • HFA Holdings (HFA), -$0.07 (17.57%) to $0.31 on volume of 979.8 thousand shares;
  • Babcock and Brown Capital (BCM), -$0.31 (13.5%) to $1.96 on volume of 524.7 thousand shares;
  • Sunland Group (SDG), -$0.19 (13.48%) to $1.22 on volume of 594.8 thousand shares; and
  • Babcock & Brown (BNB), -$0.17 (10.83%) to $1.40 on volume of 4.8 million shares.

Third-to-last amongst the sector indices was Materials (XMJ), which slid 205.5 points (2.55%) to 7839.2 points. The 45 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 222.48m units; 36 decliners had volume traded totalling 176.59m units, and 6 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 22.07m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • Minara Resources (MRE), -$0.16 (31.37%) to $0.35 on volume of 7 million shares;
  • Kagara Zinc (KZL), -$0.28 (27.09%) to $0.74 on volume of 2 million shares;
  • Platinum Australia (PLA), -$0.15 (25.66%) to $0.42 on volume of 3.7 million shares;
  • Sino Gold Mining (SGX), -$0.65 (21.52%) to $2.37 on volume of 2 million shares; and
  • Equinox Minerals (EQN), -$0.28 (19.58%) to $1.15 on volume of 4.4 million shares.
Sector Indices
Code GICS Sector Close +/- % Volume
XIJ Information Technology 471.8 28.6 6.45 3m
XHJ Healthcare 8704.5 118 1.37 10m
XUJ Utilities 4447.1 -38.2 -0.85 24m
XTJ Telecommunications 1352.1 -12.6 -0.92 37m
XEJ Energy 11764.5 -119.7 -1.01 50m
XDJ Consumer Discretionary 1301.3 -18.7 -1.42 39m
XNJ Industrials 3687.6 -64.5 -1.72 68m
XSJ Consumer Staples 6257.1 -136.1 -2.13 29m
XMJ Materials 7839.2 -205.5 -2.55 222m
XXJ Financials ex Property Trusts 4571.5 -143.7 -3.05 70m
XPJ Property Trusts 976.5 -111.9 -10.28 226m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
VPG Valad Property Group 0.09 0.01 6.1 30.2m
IIF ING Industrial Fund 0.63 -0.07 -10 26.4m
TLS Telstra Corporation Limited. 4.03 -0.03 -0.74 21.4m
OZL OZ Minerals Limited 0.92 -0.04 -4.19 21.1m
PNA PanAust Ltd 0.18 -0.04 -16.28 20.5m
All Ords Percentage Gainers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
CEG CEC Group Limited 0.19 0.03 15.15 18.6k
AOE Arrow Energy Limited 2.23 0.24 12.06 5.6m
MPO Molopo Australia Ltd 0.48 0.05 11.76 1.5m
AEU Australian Education Trust 0.29 0.03 9.43 176.9k
CTO Citigold Corporation Limited 0.20 0.02 8.11 426.8k
All Ords Percentage Losers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
MOF Macquarie Office Trust 0.37 -0.19 -34.23 18.1m
MRE Minara Resources Limited 0.35 -0.16 -31.37 7m
KZL Kagara Zinc Limited 0.74 -0.28 -27.09 2m
AFG Allco Finance Group Limited 0.09 -0.03 -25.83 5.1m
PLA Platinum Australia Limited 0.42 -0.15 -25.66 3.7m

NonRant: Smell the Fish…

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There will come a day when youth will pass away

That is something Joyno used to say – this is going back 22 or 23 years now… before the Internet, before much of the technological progress that has interconnected various massive global knowledge repositories, and reduced the marginal cost of new information to near-zero.

Joyno never mentioned where he got it from, and I seriously doubt that it was from the David Lee Roth version of "Just a Gigolo", for the simple reason that Joyno was saying that phrase years before Lee Roth left Van Halen, and the only person I have ever known who owns "Crazy from the Heat" (1985) is… me. (The title track is actually one of the best Van-Halenesque tracks since "Panama").

The Louis Armstrong version (1930) is something Joyno would never have heard in his life. And yet for all the power of the interwebs, a search for "there will come a day when youth will pass away" on the intertubes yields nothing but the song.

The only reason I wonder about it, is that it was one of only two poetic things that Joyno ever said – and he said it all the time. It was the Joyno equivalent of Mav’s two universal responses: "It’s All Meat" and "My Life is F#cked".

Joyno’s other favourite saying was "He who hesitates is lost" – usually made whenever we were too slow to enter a roundabout (through hesitating) at which point everyone would simultaneously say "Where are we?". {We were young – you can’t expect us to have had a developed sense of comedic stylin’s}.

That second one -"He who hesitates is lost" – was also a saying for which Joyno never provided a provenance, but the interwebs tells me it apparently comes from Cato by Addison (1713), but appears in loads of other places.

Joyno is also the first person I ever met who could bench twice his bodyweight – only one person in a million can do that.

 

Anyhow… the reason I mention this is that by any normal metric I have just gone past the half-way point in the lifespan I might actuarially be expected to live. (The maths is pretty simple – at 42 I have an actuarial age – the age that accounts for my habits, medicall profile and what-have-you – of about 35.5 and the average lifespan for a right-handed man born in 1965 is currently 71).

Don’t get me wrong – I’m not dying in the next 42 years. Not by a long shot. The current human cohort will be the first which has the opportunity to live several hundreds of years – if not indefinitely – and I plan to do the latter. I strongly adhere to the ideas of Kurzweil and others – that humans and other sentient animals can transcend their meatbags, andcan become either ‘virtual entities’ or will be able to be hosted in high-spec mobile receptacles with better performance specs than the current skin-sacks that we put up with.

OK… digressing again.

Still, until such time as my titanium and diamondoid mobile repository for my mind is ready, I have decided it is about time I reduced the amount of subcutaneous lipid deposits on my current mobility device to try and prolong its useful life.

Apparently I have been putting too much fuel in mine, and I’ve been using the wrong type too. Mostly it’s because I’ve been eating too many bits of other animals’ mind-mobility devices (I believe animals have minds). I’m not going to stop doing that altogether, but I am going to start doing pointless things in my own skin-bag… like walking with no intention of actually going anywhere, and riding a bike with the same net effect. The key metric I plan to rely on is the circumference of the middle of the aforementioned meat-bag… it will become smaller once the subcutaneous lipids start being dis-stored.

Yes, it’s that time of year again: I’ve got to have one last crack at dragging myself that last three inches (waist measurement) from 38 down to 35. Maté has a 35 inch waist (nd a six-pack).

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