Posts tagged SPISpy

Buy EURUSD at 1.2172

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Every retarded 5th-decimal-place chaser in the world has decided to slam short on EURUSD (of course ,they decide this after the Euro is 25 handles off its high, and 120 pips of its recent swing high… at which point you could not find a pullback for money nor jam).

EURUSD will gut them just as it gutted the same sort of fucktard who was slamming into the offer up above 1.25…

 

Likewise, Gold. Seriously? Gold’s weak? Oh, well I guess that means that the political shitbags have got a solution for the fuckups that keep emerging: from PFG, MFG, Madoff, RepCo, Enron, LIBOR, WorldCom, Greece, Spain, France… and QEn, n=1,…,∞ : of course! Makes sense. They’ve got it sorted, so there won’t be ‘beggar thy neighbour’ printing, and so there’s less risk of future inflation today, than there was yesterday or the day before.

 

Seriously? Someone’s going to try to run that shit up the flagpole? Sorry, no sale.

So get on the ‘wrong’ side of the GOld market too – be a buyer at 1563 (basis XAUUSD) and ride that sucker up a couple hundred bucks.

DumbMoney

SPISpy Freebie.. .Short the DAX, NOW.

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This is too easy… the "Dumb Money At Work" sign needs to be put out.

I know, I know… SPISpy is not generally DAX-oriented. But I'm being nice.

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OzRant for Friday Feb 5 2010

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Ords savaged to the tune of 2.4%; volume above average and losers dominate breadth stats by 9.8:1: sole sector rises. The NZSE50 closed down 1.4% for the day.In Japan, the Nikkei225 is currently trading down 2.8% for the session; Hong Kong's Hang Seng is down 2.9%.The KOSPI has lost 3.4% so far today.

ASX200 futures dipped – and closed – below 4500. SPISpyers were made aware some time ago that two consecutive closes below 4500 would bring a target of 4150 into view.

 

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SPISpy: Targets Hit…

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One-lotters bagged the revised target overnight; two-lotters likewise.

Take THAT, ‘green shoots’.

USRant: Job Done…

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You have no excuse to have failed to jump on this week’s rather splendiferous rally, dearest Reader. Your Beloved GT told you about it on Monday (in “Why So Glum? We’re Gonna Rally“), and even pointed out the best vehicle to exploit the rally (the DAX)… and even gave you the time of day at which to enter (the first hour of the German session on Monday night).

Sure, the Strayan market didn’t do the business this week, but the DAX went absolutely berserk: it closed above 4600; the entry post (“DAXRant: Here’s the Bad Ball…“) was posted with the DAX at 4287.5 and the DAX kept falling for another two hours thereafter – giving everyone the chance to hop aboard. 

As I said at the time:

Last week I mentioned that you had to wait for the bad ball, and put it away… well, the Krauts have brought on a medium-pacer who is bowling half-track lollies with 6 men inside the circle.

Take a look at the DAX chart… the dumb money is at work shorting the black off the DAX: no need to wait for ‘early weakness’, since the DAX is putting in its low today (or you may call me Meyer, as Goering once quipped).

Obviously there will be a catch-up bounce in the Strayan markets on Monday… which may present a good shorting opportunity for SPISpyers.

The US markets did the business as well – after a weakish Monday (the Dow closed at 7936), the job of skinning all those new-found nuffnuff shorts from last Friday commenced in earnest later in the week… and the Dow closed up 280 points for the week.

To put the DAX call in perspective: if you had bought and held DAX futures for the entire week, starting just after DAXRant was posted, the gain was 374.5 DAX points, at €25 per point… which turns out to be a bit over A$18,725 for the week at current exchange rates. 

As you are aware, I don’t like finishing a session with contracts in hand, so I did not ride the DAX for the whole week; I was satisfied with adding roughly 10% to the account for the week – working the ball between mid-wicket and mid-off, with the occasional lofted off-drive when the field is up. (Obviously this cricket stuff means nothing to Americans, because they come from an utterly backward culture incapable of comprehending the beauty of cream trousers with a great red stain on the ‘non-dressing’ side of the fly).

Economic News

Like I said – not interested. Next week. Suffice it to say it was all horrible.

Headline Indices

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 217.52 points (2.7%) to 8280.59 points. The index high for the day was 8312.37, while the low was 8052.24.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average index (DJI) gained 217.52 points (2.7%) to 8280.59 points. Total volume traded in the 30 components of the index was 1.91bn shares. Advancers outpaced decliners by 29 to one, with 29 advancers to 1 decliners. Advancing volume exceeded declining volume by 1.9bn to 9.71m shares. The biggest gainers (percentage-wise) were the usual dross that gets ablaze whenever the banksters sniff public money heading their way –

  • Bank Of America (BAC) +1.29 (26.7%) to $6.13 on volume of 718.42m shares;
  • JPMorganChase (JPM) +3.09 (12.6%) to $27.63 on volume of 76.54m shares;
  • Citigroup (C) +0.38 (10.8%) to $3.91 on volume of 259.31m shares;
  • American Express (AXP) +0.9 (5.3%) to $17.93 on volume of 18.92m shares; and
  • Caterpillar (CAT) +1.67 (5.3%) to $33.28 on volume of 16.92m shares.

The S&P500 Index gained 22.75 points (2.69%) to 868.60 points.. Total volume traded in the 500 components of the index was 5.36bn shares. Advancers outpaced decliners by 9.4 to one, with 433 advancers to 46 decliners. Advancing volume exceeded declining volume by 4.94bn to 366.53m shares. The biggest gainers (percentage-wise) were –

  • Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) +0.99 (60.4%) to $2.63 on volume of 69.51m shares;
  • Regions Financial Corp. (RF) +1.37 (48.4%) to $4.2 on volume of 47.43m shares;
  • Marshall & Ilsley Corp. (MI) +1.49 (39%) to $5.31 on volume of 13.73m shares;
  • Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) +0.57 (31.8%) to $2.36 on volume of 27.02m shares; and
  • Bank of America Corp. (BAC) +1.29 (26.7%) to $6.13 on volume of 718.42m shares.

The Nasdaq Composite rose +45.47 points (2.94%) to 1591.71 points, while the Nasdaq100 index (NDX) advanced 32.38 points (2.6%) to 1277.49 points. Total volume traded in the 100 components of the Nasdaq100 was 1.09bn shares. Advancers outpaced decliners by 9.9 to one, with 89 advancers to 9 decliners. Advancing volume exceeded declining volume by 870.8m to 224.15m shares. The biggest gainers (percentage-wise) were –

  • SanDisk (SNDK) +1.04 (10.4%) to $11.05 on volume of 8.33m shares;
  • Steel Dynamics (STLD) +1.1 (8.7%) to $13.79 on volume of 8.84m shares;
  • Logitech International (LOGI) +0.78 (8.2%) to $10.24 on volume of 1.76m shares;
  • Infosys Technologies (INFY) +2.19 (8.2%) to $28.99 on volume of 4.92m shares; and
  • Lamar Advertising (LAMR) +0.72 (8%) to $9.76 on volume of 1.44m shares.

Volatility

The CBOE Volatility Index dropped 0.36 points (0.82%) to 43.37 points. and the CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index lost 1.35 points (3.12%) to 41.95 points..

Breadth and Internals

A total of 3889 issues traded today on the NYSE; 3113 stocks posted gains for the day, and there were 696 losers. 15 stocks made new 1-year highs on the NYSE, while 70 shares plumbed new 52-week depths.

On the Nasdaq 2906 tickers traded today; total Nasdaq volume was 2.4bn shares. A total of 2061 stocks posted gains for the day, with aggregate volume of 1.98bn shares changing hands in the day’s winners. The red zone of the Nasdaq exchange comprised 703 losers, and total declining volume was 0.4bn shares. 7 Nasdaq-listed stocks hit new 52-week highs, while 75 shares dipped to new 1-year lows.

Major Market Statistics
Index Close Gain(Loss) %
Dow Jones Industrial Average 8280.59 +217.52 2.7%
S&P500 Index 868.60 +22.75 2.69%
Nasdaq Composite 1591.71 +45.47 2.94%
Nasdaq100 1277.49 +32.38 2.6%
CBOE Volatility Index 43.37 -0.36 -0.82%
CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index 41.95 -1.35 -3.12%

Dow Darlings

  • Bank Of America (BAC) +1.29 (26.7%) to $6.13 on volume of 718.5m units
  • JPMorganChase (JPM) +3.09 (12.6%) to $27.63 on volume of 76.5m units
  • Citigroup (C) +0.38 (10.8%) to $3.91 on volume of 259.4m units
  • American Express (AXP) +0.9 (5.3%) to $17.93 on volume of 18.9m units
  • Caterpillar (CAT) +1.67 (5.3%) to $33.28 on volume of 16.9m units

Dow Duds:

  • General Motors (GM) -0.02 (0.7%) to $2.84 on volume of 9.7m units

Most Traded Dow stocks:

  • Bank Of America (BAC) +1.29 (26.7%) to $6.13 on volume of 718.5m units
  • Citigroup (C) +0.38 (10.8%) to $3.91 on volume of 259.4m units
  • General Electric (GE) +0.25 (2.3%) to $11.1 on volume of 218.3m units
  • Microsoft (MSFT) +0.62 (3.3%) to $19.66 on volume of 85.7m units
  • JPMorganChase (JPM) +3.09 (12.6%) to $27.63 on volume of 76.5m units
Precious Metals

The Gold Bugs index (XAU) advanced 2.89 points (2.28%) to 129.72 points. Total volume traded in the 16 components of the index was 128.11m shares. Advancers outpaced decliners by 14 to one, with 14 advancers to 1 decliners. Advancing volume exceeded declining volume by 111.53m to 0.77m shares. The biggest gainers (percentage-wise) were –

  • AngloGold Ashanti (AU) +1.71 (6.6%) to $27.67 on volume of 4.02m shares;
  • Freeport McMoran (FCX) +1.46 (5.1%) to $29.81 on volume of 31.18m shares;
  • Harmony Gold (HMY) +0.48 (4.2%) to $11.97 on volume of 2.75m shares;
  • RandGold Resources (GOLD) +1.64 (3.6%) to $46.61 on volume of 0.84m shares; and
  • Coeur d’Alene (CDE) +0.02 (2.9%) to $0.71 on volume of 5.87m shares.
Energy Complex

The Oil Services index (OSX) gained 4.06 points (3.04%) to 137.8 points. Total volume traded in the 15 components of the index was 97.42m shares. Not a single stock declined withinin the index: the biggest gainers (percentage-wise) were –

  • Cameron International (CAM) +1.34 (6.1%) to $23.26 on volume of 5.94m shares;
  • Weatherford International (WFT) +0.66 (5.6%) to $12.35 on volume of 15.68m shares;
  • Rowan Co (RDC) +0.62 (4.6%) to $14.16 on volume of 4.81m shares;
  • BJ Services (BJS) +0.53 (4.5%) to $12.31 on volume of 6.5m shares; and
  • National Oilwell Varco (NOV) +1.17 (4.2%) to $29.19 on volume of 8.88m shares.


Bellwethers

The nine-stock group that makes up the Rant bellwethers advanced on average by 8.9% thanks to massive rebounds in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (or as I refer to them in their new Soviet status under nationalisation: Fannie Lenin and Freddie Trotsky) The fallout occurred as follows:

  • General Electric (GE) +0.25 (2.3%) to $11.10 on volume of 218.25m units.
  • Citigroup (C) +0.38 (10.76%) to $3.91 on volume of 259.39m units.
  • Wal-Mart (WMT) +1.07 (2.2%) to $49.63 on volume of 28.18m units.
  • IBM (IBM) +4.23 (4.6%) to $96.14 on volume of 12.74m units.
  • Intel (INTC) +0.48 (3.37%) to $14.73 on volume of 61.85m units.
  • Cisco Systems (CSCO) +0.69 (4.22%) to $17.04 on volume of 62.11m units.
  • Google (GOOG) +17.56 (4.96%) to $371.28 on volume of 6.97m units.
  • Fannie Mae (FNM) +0.13 (25%) to $0.65 on volume of 20.64m units.
  • Freddie Mac (FRE) +0.12 (23.08%) to $0.64 on volume of 12.75m units.
Other Indices of Interest…

The Banks index (BKX) added 3.24 points (11.94%) to 30.37 points. Total volume traded in the 24 components of the index was 1.51bn shares. Not a single stock declined withinin the index: 21 of the 24 index components rose, with total upside volume of 1.51bnshares. The biggest gainers (percentage-wise) were –

  • Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) +0.99 (60.4%) to $2.63 on volume of 69.51m shares;
  • Regions Financial (RF) +1.37 (48.4%) to $4.2 on volume of 47.43m shares;
  • New M&I Corporation (MI) +1.49 (39%) to $5.31 on volume of 13.73m shares;
  • Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) +0.57 (31.8%) to $2.36 on volume of 27.02m shares; and
  • Bank Of America (BAC) +1.29 (26.7%) to $6.13 on volume of 718.42m shares.

The Semiconductor index (SOX) added 7.87 points (3.56%) to 229.18 points. Total volume traded in the 18 components of the index was 276.03m shares. Not a single stock declined withinin the index: the biggest gainers (percentage-wise) were –

  • Infineon Tech (IFX) +0.16 (17.6%) to $1.07 on volume of 3.68m shares;
  • Sandisk (SNDK) +1.04 (10.4%) to $11.05 on volume of 8.33m shares;
  • ST Microelectronic (STM) +0.4 (7.5%) to $5.73 on volume of 1.4m shares;
  • Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) +0.58 (7.2%) to $8.69 on volume of 41.72m shares; and
  • Teradyne (TER) +0.31 (6.2%) to $5.31 on volume of 4.23m shares.

The ChildKiller (“Defence”) index (DFX) added 2.11 points (0.85%) to 249.52 points. Total volume traded in the 17 components of the index was 262.98m shares. Advancers outpaced decliners by 1.7 to one, with 10 advancers to 6 decliners. Advancing volume exceeded declining volume by 242.56m to 20.41m shares. The biggest gainers (percentage-wise) were –

  • Gencorp (GY) +0.27 (8.6%) to $3.41 on volume of 0.23m shares;
  • Esterline Tech (ESL) +1 (2.7%) to $38.24 on volume of 0.28m shares;
  • Embraer Empresa (ERJ) +0.42 (2.7%) to $16.1 on volume of 0.53m shares;
  • General Electric (GE) +0.25 (2.3%) to $11.1 on volume of 218.25m shares; and
  • FLIRr Systems (FLIR) +0.51 (2.3%) to $23.13 on volume of 4.24m shares.

OzRant: Ahem… TOOT TOOT…

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The three trades that were dished out (for free, mind you) since last week have all been belters (SPI long, EURGBP short and Crude long)…and although I exited the SPI well under 3450, 3450 was there for those who waited (as was 3460 and 3470… the SPI top today was 3480). 

In the SPI I had a couple of other dips on the long side – each worth a coupla-hunjie – so I think all things considered I wound up with an ‘as if’ exit in the 3450 range..

Likewise in Crude – the aim was to grab a coupla-hunjie per contract, and that we did. Crude didn’t look strong enough to get anywhere near $42.48 (the stated exit I wanted) so I grabbed at $42.29 and said “Ahhh yibbida yibbida… thank your mother for the rabbits”. I will have another crack at Crude during the Yank session.

All the major banks recovered almost all the ground they lost last Friday, but the going was awfully slow. Compared to the US session, the Strayan session is a very tentative affair – as if the bulls are still shell-shocked and aren’t taking anything at face value.

I think this is fun – another day or two and everyone will be singing ‘Happy days are here again”, Bubblevision will crank up the propaganda… and then the market will gut them like fish.  Having surveyed the landscape, I now think – without being too alarmist – that we are going to see sub-1000 on the Dow before this grizzly has drunk its fill of nuffie-blood.

The last 7000 points of Dow decline is not going to happen all at once, and it’s not going to happen in a straight line. There will be loads of opportunities like the one I just showed you (i.e., Friday afternoon to today – and maybe a couple more days, but let’s leave that to the suckers). 

Its up to you whether you want to come along for the ride: to put that ride in perspective, the SPI trade (from 3300 to 3450) was worth $3750 per contract, in three sessions. A subscription to the SPISpy signals is about $200 (I forget exactly- it’s bugger all though, and each SPI trade makes more than the sub).

Major Market Indices

The broad market – the All Ordinaries (XAO) – rose strongly, registering a gain of 42.8 points (1.26%), finishing at 3435.1 points. The index hit an intraday high of 3444.6 at 2:18 pm, while the low for the day was 3383.3 – set at 10:10 am Sydney time.

Total volume traded on the ASX was 977.1m units, 2% above its 10-day average of 958m shares.

The ASX’s daily listing of all stocks included 1016 different 3-letter FPO’s which traded (i.e., had non-zero trade volume). Of these, 369 issues rose, with volume in rising issues totalling 461.5m units; there were 399 declining stocks, which traded aggregate declining volume of 386.8m shares.

Of the 486 All Ordinaries components, 200 rose while 182 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the gainers by a margin of 1.5:1, with 411.56m shares traded in gainers while 279.25m shares traded in the day’s losers.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SPI Futures – the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) – managed a solid gain, adding 51.5 points (1.50%), closing out the session at 3495.5 points.

GT Intraday Chart
Name Close +/-(%)
All Ordinaries 3435.10 42.80 (1.3%)
ASX 20 2098.90 43.00 (2.1%)
ASX 50 3539.30 62.30 (1.8%)
ASX 100 2880.70 43.30 (1.5%)
ASX 200 3495.50 51.50 (1.5%)
ASX 300 3480.20 50.00 (1.5%)
ASX Mid-Cap 50 3119.10 -14.70 (0.5%)
ASX Small Ordinaries 1636.20 10.20 (0.6%)

The “heavy hitters” of the Australian market – the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) – had a bit of a moonshot, stacking on 43 points (2.09%), closing out the session at 2098.9 points.

Among the 20 big guns, 13 index components finished to the upside, and 8 lost ground. The stocks which make up the index traded a total of 156.78m units; 13 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 118.18m shares, while the 8 decliners had volume traded totalling 38.6m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • ANZ Banking Group (ANZ), +$0.81 (6.53%) to $13.21 on volume of 9.5 million shares;
  • Commonwealth Bank Of Australia (CBA), +$1.57 (6.35%) to $26.31 on volume of 6.1 million shares;
  • Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC), +$0.77 (5.2%) to $15.59 on volume of 8.7 million shares;
  • Suncorp-Metway. (SUN), +$0.36 (4.77%) to $7.90 on volume of 3 million shares; and
  • National Australia Bank (NAB), +$0.71 (4.1%) to $18.02 on volume of 6.9 million shares.

On the less salubrious side of the big-cap fence, the following stocks were the worst-performed within the index:

  • Newcrest Mining (NCM), -$1.25 (3.77%) to $31.90 on volume of 2.2 million shares;
  • Rio Tinto (RIO), -$1.24 (2.94%) to $40.95 on volume of 6.6 million shares;
  • Origin Energy (ORG), -$0.38 (2.69%) to $13.73 on volume of 3 million shares;
  • Stockland (SGP), -$0.09 (2.51%) to $3.50 on volume of 5.6 million shares; and
  • Wesfarmers (WES), -$0.38 (2.32%) to $16.02 on volume of 7 million shares.

The ASX Small Ordinaries (XSO) advanced by under a percent, adding 10.2 points (0.63%), closing out the session at 1636.2 points.

Among the stocks that make up the Small Caps index, 96 index components finished to the upside, and of the rest, 82 closed lower for the session.

The 209 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 235.24m units: volume in the 96 gainers totalling 78.84m shares, with trade totalling 92.88m units in the index’s 82 declining components. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Albidon (ALB), +$0.01 (20.34%) to $0.07 on volume of 1.5 million shares;
  • Babcock And Brown Capital (BCM), +$0.17 (14.53%) to $1.34 on volume of 154.7 thousand shares;
  • Linc Energy Ltd (LNC), +$0.16 (13.91%) to $1.31 on volume of 2 million shares;
  • Centennial Coal Company (CEY), +$0.31 (13.25%) to $2.65 on volume of 2.7 million shares; and
  • Rubicon Japan Trust (RJT), +$0.00 (11.11%) to $0.01 on volume of 687.7 tho
    usand shares.

In the red-zone of the little-stock index, the following list represents the biggest downers (in terms of percentage decline):

  • Macquarie Countrywide Trust (MCW), -$0.04 (14.81%) to $0.23 on volume of 8.1 million shares;
  • Aditya Birla Minerals (ABY), -$0.02 (12.5%) to $0.14 on volume of 901 thousand shares;
  • Apex Minerals NL (AXM), -$0.05 (11.84%) to $0.34 on volume of 4.1 million shares;
  • Challenger Infrastructure Fund (CIF), -$0.19 (9.25%) to $1.82 on volume of 303 thousand shares; and
  • Service Stream (SSM), -$0.05 (9.18%) to $0.45 on volume of 207.5 thousand shares.

Index Changes
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
XAO All Ordinaries 3435.1 42.8 1.26 787.3m
XFL ASX 50 3539.3 62.3 1.79 335.6m
XJO ASX 200 3495.5 51.5 1.5 702.8m
XKO ASX 300 3480.2 50 1.46 753.7m
XMD ASX Mid-Cap 50 3119.1 -14.7 -0.47 195m
XSO ASX Small Ordinaries 1636.2 10.2 0.63 223m
XTL ASX 20 2098.9 43 2.09 151.1m
XTO ASX 100 2880.7 43.3 1.53 530.7m
Market Breadth
ASX20 XTO XJO XAO XSO Market
Advances 13 52 111 200 96 369
Declines 8 43 79 182 82 399
Advancing Volume 118.2m 325.9m 386.2m 411.6m 78.8m 461.5m
Declining Volume 38.6m 191m 241.1m 279.3m 92.9m 386.8m
GICS Industry Indices

Among the 11 industry indices, things were relatively upbeat: every sector bar one managed to keep its head above water.

The best performing index was Financials ex Property Trusts (XXJ), which added 141 points (4.13%) to 3552.9 points. The 27 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 61.82m units; 21 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 57.02m shares, while the 4 decliners had volume traded totalling 2.88m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Babcock And Brown Capital (BCM), +$0.17 (14.53%) to $1.34 on volume of 154.7 thousand shares;
  • FKP Property Group (FKP), +$0.04 (8.75%) to $0.44 on volume of 456.5 thousand shares;
  • HFA Holdings (HFA), +$0.01 (8%) to $0.08 on volume of 2.6 million shares;
  • ANZ Banking Group (ANZ), +$0.81 (6.53%) to $13.21 on volume of 9.5 million shares; and
  • Commonwealth Bank Of Australia (CBA), +$1.57 (6.35%) to $26.31 on volume of 6.1 million shares.

Second in the index leadership stakes was Healthcare (XHJ), which gained 169.4 points (1.93%) to 8932.2 points. The 9 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 13.19m units; 8 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 12.66m shares, while the sole declining stock traded 0.53m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Healthscope (HSP), +$0.17 (4.14%) to $4.28 on volume of 443.4 thousand shares;
  • Primary Health Care (PRY), +$0.19 (4.03%) to $4.90 on volume of 1.1 million shares;
  • Ramsay Health Care (RHC), +$0.33 (3.29%) to $10.35 on volume of 406.8 thousand shares;
  • ResMed Inc. (RMD), +$0.14 (2.33%) to $6.14 on volume of 3.1 million shares; and
  • Sonic Healthcare (SHL), +$0.29 (2.11%) to $14.02 on volume of 1.3 million shares.

The bronze medal for today goes to Telecommunications (XTJ), which climbed 23 points (1.83%) to 1276.7 points. This index only contains 3 stocks; they traded a total of 54.95m units today, and none of the stocks in the index lost ground.

  • Telstra Corporation (TLS), +$0.07 (1.9%) to $3.75 on volume of 40 million shares;
  • Telecom Corporation Of New Zealand (TEL), +$0.03 (1.46%) to $2.09 on volume of 10.1 million shares; and
  • Singapore Telecommunications (SGT), +$0.02 (0.78%) to $2.60 on volume of 4.8 million shares.

The only declining index for the session was Property Trusts (XPJ), which dipped 10.9 points (1.34%) to 802.2 points. The 21 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 202.92m units; The 11 decliners had volume traded totalling 91.69m units, and 7 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 65.26m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • Macquarie Countrywide Trust (MCW), -$0.04 (14.81%) to $0.23 on volume of 8.1 million shares;
  • Mirvac Group (MGR), -$0.08 (6.78%) to $1.10 on volume of 7.6 million shares;
  • Goodman Group (GMG), -$0.05 (5.81%) to $0.73 on volume of 8.4 million shares;
  • Macquarie DDR Trust (MDT), -$0 (5.08%) to $0.06 on volume of 4.2 million shares; and
  • Abacus Property Group (ABP), -$0.01 (4.17%) to $0.23 on volume of 1.3 million shares.
Sector Indices
Code GICS Sector Close +/- % Volume
XXJ Financials ex Property Trusts 3552.9 141 4.13 62m
XHJ Healthcare 8932.2 169.4 1.93 13m
XTJ Telecommunications 1276.7 23 1.83 55m
XDJ Consumer Discretionary 1098.5 15.8 1.46 30m
XIJ Information Technology 386.6 3.2 0.83 3m
XNJ Industrials 2999 10.4 0.35 82m
XMJ Materials 8497.3 25.6 0.3 173m
XEJ Energy 11648.2 18.5 0.16 33m
XUJ Utilities 4180 6 0.14 25m
XSJ Consumer Staples 6071.5 8.1 0.13 29m
XPJ Property Trusts 802.2 -10.9 -1.34 203m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
TLS Telstra Corporation. 3.75 0.07 1.9 40m
VPG Valad Property Group 0.04 0.00 0 37.4m
DXS Dexus Property Group 0.74 -0.02 -2 32.3m
LGL Lihir Gold 3.08 0.05 1.65 29.5m
GPT GPT Group 0.79 0.01 1.28 24.9m
All Ords Percentage Gainers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
CEG CEC Group 0.20 0.04 25.81 61.4k
ALB Albidon 0.07 0.01 20.34 1.5m
BCM Babcock And Brown Capital 1.34 0.17 14.53 154.7k
INP Innamincka Petroleum 0.24 0.03 14.29 1.8m
LNC Linc Energy Ltd 1.31 0.16 13.91 2m
All Ords Percentage Losers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
MAFCA Multiplex Prime Property Fund 0.01 0.00 -25 224.6k
NHR National Hire Group 1.50 -0.32 -17.58 6k
BLD Boral 3.45 -0.63 -15.44 16m
MCW Macquarie Countrywide Trust 0.23 -0.04 -14.81 8.1m
AVJ Avjennings 0.31 -0.05 -12.68 15.5k

SPIRant: Exited 3435

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Exited primarily because of frustration at having been s stupid as to make a keying error on the bloody entry. It will almost certainly turn out to have been a early exit, since I do think that there is life in the long side yet. If SPI presents another %R oversold today I will probably jump back in.

Note – exiting the long does NOT mean a reversal back to a short – I might re-enter long a bit later.

Crude trade up just under two hunjie per contract… nice, but it’s a pain during the US overnight (thin and sloooooooow)

As an aside, I am torn as to whether we should say ‘hunjie’, ‘hundie’ or ‘hunnit’ as our cool web hip 21stcentury Web2.0 slang term for ‘hundred’

OzRant: But.. But… But… the US Went UP!!

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D

espite having a reasonably decent vocabulary, and some familiarity with letters and words and such, I have trouble expressing my dismay at the nuffnuffs who bought the overnight SPI. It was as if madness had bred with lunacy and their bastard offspring had taken massive doses of crack and Prozac. Man, that Dumb Money At Work sign was up, and it had those flashing things set up all ’round it, and there were sirens and announcements over the Tannoy saying “Attention: Look Out Below… Dumb Money Is Buying”.

SPISpyers certainly felt a pinch in the vord-al region overnight as the thing rose and rose and rose… we were short from 3620-odd (for it was written yestermorn “Thou shalt short the SPI at the noon hour – yea verily at the noon hour shalt thou short the SPI” or words to that effect). 

So in the pre-market this morning, I reckon there may have been some among the faithful that got a bit Thomas-y in the doubt department.

In the overnight, the SPI got as high as – and I warn you, this is not a typo – 7361 … oops – that was a typo … I meant 3761

So doubtless at about 7 a.m., there were folks who thought “Hmmm… this contrarian lark sucks rancid donkey balls”; for verily the faithful were tested and there was skittishness amongst the horses.

They need not have been concerned – as it was ordained, so mote it be…the SPI fell 208 points between 7 a.m. and 11 a.m.; by 10:30a.m., the SPI had hit the predestined SPISpy targets, and big-lot traders put a stop under the last half of their position and let it ride. Huzzah.

And by 11 a.m., everyone who bought after 10:15 a.m. Monday was underwater. Just as it should be.

Seriously though: the short was mistimed a tad and thus goes down as a slightly sucky call despite the fact that everyone was able to pocket a good hearty gain. I am sure that every Monday Morning half-back on the planet could find a perfect exit and subsequent re-entry, but there was no valid signal to do either. 

Doin’ stuff without a signal? That ain’t how we roll, dog.

Anyhow – when all was done and dusted, one-lotters booked a 5% gain, 2-lotters booked a 7.8% gain, and people trading 3 or more collected a little over 10%. 

Not bad for a one-day return on a bad call. One-lotters who subscribe to the SPISpy paid for the month’s subscription with one trade and had change for a pretty terrific bottle of red (at least Bin 707). 

That‘s how we roll, yo.

While I’m tooting – have you seen AUD lately? You might recall from the Currencies section of the OzRant of Thursday, November 20, 2008 when AUD was 0.6113 – even after today’s debacle in the AUD, that trade has profited to the tune of $4000 per $5400 margin… this morning at 7:30 a.m. Strayan time it hit the magic ‘100% of margin’ target. But back to the call itself:

Currency futures lent a bid to the USD again… a short is setting up. The Australian dollar got absolutely belted. Buy AUD pretty much right now.

We won’t mention the short position in the US long bond – that is still playing out, and much as it hurts at the moment, it will probably be the most valuable position in the Rant quiver by the end of the year. The long position in Crudewas likewise a little early – but watch it go.

Now – let’s survey the Strayan market landscape…

Major Market Indices

The broad market – the All Ordinaries (XAO) – lost 20.1 points (0.57%), finishing at 3533.7 points. The index hit an intraday high of 3556.3 at the open, while the low for the day was 3495.2 – set at 10:45 am Sydney time.

If that seems wildly at odds with what was written above ,consider that the majority of the decline in the SPI happened before 10 a.m.; it was only a defence of 3550 in the SPI futures that saved a bigger meltdown.

Total volume traded on the ASX was 1.15bn units, 1.1% above its 10-day average of 1.14bn shares.The ASX’s daily listing of all stocks included 1038 different 3-letter FPO’s which traded (i.e., had non-zero trade volume). Of these, 426 issues rose, with volume in rising issues totalling 446.7m units; there were 371 declining stocks, which traded aggregate declining volume of 570.2m shares.

Of the 488 All Ordinaries components, 208 rose while 179 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the losers by a margin of 1.3:1, with 364.53m shares traded in gainers while 465.05m shares traded in the day’s losers.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SPI Futures – the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) – fell mildly, losing 27.3 points (0.75%), closing out the session at 3604.3 points.

GT Intraday Chart
Name Close +/-(%)
All Ordinaries 3533.70 -20.10 (0.6%)
ASX 20 2175.30 -23.60 (1.1%)
ASX 50 3654.30 -35.40 (1.0%)
ASX 100 2976.10 -24.50 (0.8%)
ASX 200 3604.30 -27.30 (0.8%)
ASX 300 3582.80 -26.00 (0.7%)
ASX Mid-Cap 50 3238.00 9.80 (0.3%)
ASX Small Ordinaries 1611.10 7.10 (0.4%)

The “heavy hitters” of the Australian market – the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) – registered a loss of 23.6 points (1.07%), closing out the session at 2175.3 points.

Among the 20 big guns, 5 index components finished to the upside, and 14 lost ground. The stocks which make up the index traded a total of 146.08m units; 5 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 35.14m shares, while the 14 decliners had volume traded totalling 107.61m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Newcrest Mining (NCM), +$2.06 (7.87%) to $28.23 on volume of 3.2 million shares;
  • BHP Billiton (BHP), +$1.23 (4.52%) to $28.45 on volume of 20.3 million shares;
  • RIO Tinto (RIO), +$1.27 (3.96%) to $33.35 on volume of 7.7 million shares;
  • Origin Energy (ORG), +$0.36 (2.23%) to $16.51 on volume of 2.5 million shares; and
  • Macquarie Group (MQG), +$0.15 (0.5%) to $30.05 on volume of 1.5 million shares.

On the less salubrious side of the big-cap fence, the following stocks were the worst-performed within the index:

  • Commonwealth Bank Of Australia (CBA), -$2.8 (8.54%) to $30.00 on volume of 11.3 million shares;
  • Stockland (SGP), -$0.24 (5.96%) to $3.79 on volume of 5.7 million shares;
  • ANZ Banking Group (ANZ), -$0.83 (5.56%) to $14.10 on volume of 13.7 million shares;
  • Westfield Group (WDC), -$0.71 (5.16%) to $13.04 on volume of 6.7 million shares; and
  • National Australia Bank (NAB), -$1.06 (5.06%) to $19.90 on volume of 8.9 million shares.

The ASX Small Ordinaries (XSO) posted a gain despite weakness in the big-caps. The Small Ords advanced by under a percent, adding 7.1 points (0.44%), closing out the session at 1611.1 points.

Among the stocks that make up the Small Caps index, 101 index components finished to the upside, and of the rest, 81 closed lower for the session.

The 208 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 291.58m units: volume in the 101 gainers totalling 125.31m shares, with trade totalling 140.07m units in the index’s 81 declining components. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Sino Gold Mining (SGX), +$0.41 (13.31%) to $3.49 on volume of 1.2 million shares;
  • Moly Mines (MOL), +$0.03 (11.54%) to $0.29 on volume of 141.7 thousand shares;
  • Apex Minerals NL (AXM), +$0.03 (10.71%) to $0.31 on volume of 1.6 million shares;
  • Industrea (IDL), +$0.02 (10.71%) to $0.16 on volume of 2.8 million shares; and
  • Admiralty Resources NL (ADY), +$0.00 (10%) to $0.01 on volume of 31.5 million shares.

In the red-zone of the little-stock index, the following list represents the biggest downers (in terms of percentage decline):

  • ING Real Estate Community Living Group (ILF), -$0.01 (14.93%) to $0.06 on volume of 35.6 million shares;
  • Babcock & Brown Power (BBP), -$0.01 (13.79%) to $0.05 on volume of 5.7 million shares;
  • Aquila Resources (AQA), -$0.41 (13.36%) to $2.66 on volume of 267.2 thousand shares;
  • Energy World Corporation Ltd (EWC), -$0.04 (12.73%) to $0.24 on volume of 2.2 million shares; and
  • United Minerals Corporation NL (UMC), -$0.06 (11.76%) to $0.45 on volume of 64.5 thousand shares.

Index Changes
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
XAO All Ordinaries 3533.7 -20.1 -0.57 906.7m
XFL ASX 50 3654.3 -35.4 -0.96 323.6m
XJO ASX 200 3604.3 -27.3 -0.75 744.6m
XKO ASX 300 3582.8 -26 -0.72 864.6m
XMD ASX Mid-Cap 50 3238 9.8 0.3 258.4m
XSO ASX Small Ordinaries 1611.1 7.1 0.44 282.6m
XTL ASX 20 2175.3 -23.6 -1.07 140.4m
XTO ASX 100 2976.1 -24.5 -0.82 582m
Market Breadth
ASX20 XTO XJO XAO XSO Market
Advances 5 41 90 208 101 426
Declines 14 51 100 179 81 371
Advancing Volume 35.1m 223.7m 285.9m 364.5m 125.3m 446.7m
Declining Volume 107.6m 320.2m 412.5m 465m 140.1m 570.2m
GICS Industry Indices

Among the 11 industry indices, it was pretty much even stevens, with a very slight lead to the duds… the 5 that had an “up” day were just shaded by the remaining 6 which didn’t.

The best performing index was Materials (XMJ), which added 279.5 points (3.59%) to 8055.6 points. The 45 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 182.12m units; 31 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 94.3m shares, while the 11 decliners had volume traded totalling 81.55m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Sino Gold Mining (SGX), +$0.41 (13.31%) to $3.49 on volume of 1.2 million shares;
  • OM Holdings (OMH), +$0.09 (9.14%) to $1.08 on volume of 685.2 thousand shares;
  • Coeur d’Alene Mines Corporation (CXC), +$0.07 (8.64%) to $0.88 on volume of 148.5 thousand shares;
  • Newcrest Mining (NCM), +$2.06 (7.87%) to $28.23 on volume of 3.2 million shares; and
  • Independence Group NL (IGO), +$0.10 (7.75%) to $1.39 on volume of 438.3 thousand shares.

Second in the index leadership stakes was Information Technology (XIJ), which gained 7 points (1.79%) to 399.1 points. This index only contains 2 stocks; they traded a total of 2.44m units today and both rose for the session – 

  • Iress Market Technology (IRE), +$0.19 (4.59%) to $4.33 on volume of 210 thousand shares; and
  • Computershare (CPU), +$0.10 (1.43%) to $7.09 on volume of 2.2 million shares.

The bronze medal for today goes to Energy (XEJ), which climbed 39.2 points (0.34%) to 11701.9 points. The 19 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 34.12m units; 14 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 26.24m shares, while the 5 decliners had volume traded totalling 7.89m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Worleyparsons (WOR), +$0.80 (6.5%) to $13.10 on volume of 1.5 million shares;
  • Caltex Australia (CTX), +$0.38 (5.86%) to $6.86 on volume of 840.9 thousand shares;
  • Gloucester Coal (GCL), +$0.16 (5.1%) to $3.30 on volume of 601.7 thousand shares;
  • Beach Petroleum (BPT), +$0.04 (4.43%) to $0.83 on volume of 3.9 million shares; and
  • Arrow Energy (AOE), +$0.08 (4.17%) to $2.00 on volume of 3 million shares.

The worst-performed index for the session was Financials ex Property Trusts (XXJ), which dipped 148.6 points (3.67%) to 3896.6 points. The 27 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 90.91m units; The 19 decliners had volume traded totalling 81.89m units, and 5 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 3.74m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • FKP Property Group (FKP), -$0.08 (10.14%) to $0.67 on volume of 2.2 million shares;
  • Commonwealth Bank Of Australia (CBA), -$2.8 (8.54%) to $30.00 on volume of 11.3 million shares;
  • Sunland Group (SDG), -$0.07 (7.9
    8%) to $0.75 on volume of 1.8 million shares;
  • Babcock & Brown (BNB), -$0.01 (6.06%) to $0.16 on volume of 18.9 million shares; and
  • IOOF Holdings (IFL), -$0.19 (5.96%) to $3.00 on volume of 55.6 thousand shares.

Just missing out on the wooden spoon was Property Trusts (XPJ), which slid 25 points (2.71%) to 896.7 points. The 21 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 185.25m units; The 14 decliners had volume traded totalling 88.98m units, and 4 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 80.21m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • Centro Retail (CER), -$0.01 (10.45%) to $0.06 on volume of 5.9 million shares;
  • Tishman Speyer Office Fund (TSO), -$0.02 (9.76%) to $0.19 on volume of 1.3 million shares;
  • Goodman Group (GMG), -$0.08 (9.38%) to $0.73 on volume of 14 million shares;
  • Macquarie DDR Trust (MDT), -$0.01 (7.94%) to $0.06 on volume of 5.6 million shares; and
  • Valad Property Group (VPG), -$0 (7.84%) to $0.05 on volume of 11.5 million shares.

Third-to-last amongst the sector indices was Consumer Staples (XSJ), which slid 97.9 points (1.59%) to 6076.8 points. The 13 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 33.91m units; The 9 decliners had volume traded totalling 26.34m units, and 4 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 7.57m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • Goodman Fielder (GFF), -$0.07 (4.64%) to $1.34 on volume of 6.4 million shares;
  • Timbercorp (TIM), -$0 (4.12%) to $0.09 on volume of 2.4 million shares;
  • Australian Agricultural Company. (AAC), -$0.05 (3.85%) to $1.25 on volume of 784.7 thousand shares;
  • Foster’s Group (FGL), -$0.2 (3.53%) to $5.46 on volume of 8.4 million shares; and
  • AWB (AWB), -$0.1 (3.33%) to $2.90 on volume of 987.1 thousand shares.
Sector Indices
Code GICS Sector Close +/- % Volume
XMJ Materials 8055.6 279.5 3.59 182m
XIJ Information Technology 399.1 7 1.79 2m
XEJ Energy 11701.9 39.2 0.34 34m
XNJ Industrials 3140.3 9 0.29 87m
XHJ Healthcare 8396.9 5.1 0.06 10m
XTJ Telecommunications 1407.7 -2.1 -0.15 33m
XDJ Consumer Discretionary 1136 -10 -0.87 50m
XUJ Utilities 4123.2 -62.7 -1.5 45m
XSJ Consumer Staples 6076.8 -97.9 -1.59 34m
XPJ Property Trusts 896.7 -25 -2.71 185m
XXJ Financials ex Property Trusts 3896.6 -148.6 -3.67 91m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
DXS Dexus Property Group 0.90 0.02 2.27 38.3m
ILF ING Real Estate Community Living Group 0.06 -0.01 -14.93 35.6m
ADY Admiralty Resources NL 0.01 0.00 10 31.5m
TLS Telstra Corporation. 4.21 -0.01 -0.24 27.2m
GPT GPT Group 0.90 0.10 11.8 23.5m
All Ords Percentage Gainers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
AVJ Avjennings 0.40 0.10 33.33 57.2k
KBC KeyBridge Capital 0.12 0.02 14.29 1.4m
TOE Toro Energy 0.13 0.02 13.64 488.3k
GPM GEO Property Group 0.17 0.02 13.33 1.5m
SGX Sino Gold Mining 3.49 0.41 13.31 1.2m
All Ords Percentage Losers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
ILF ING Real Estate Community Living Group 0.06 -0.01 -14.93 35.6m
BBP Babcock & Brown Power 0.05 -0.01 -13.79 5.7m
AQA Aquila Resources 2.66 -0.41 -13.36 267.2k
FEA Forest Enterprises 0.30 -0.05 -13.04 87.8k
HLG Hedley Leisure And Gaming Property Fund 0.27 -0.04 -12.9 50.5k

OzRant: With Stimpy’s Mighty Brain…

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Mmmmmm…. Hope. I imagine that to Mistress Market, the smell of hope is as sweet a savour as the smell of fresh foreskin to the god of the Habiru. (Yahweh is a sick puppy: if it’s not “Prove you love me – cut off bits of your willy“, it’s “Here, Ezekiel – eat this shit sandwich.” or “Hey Israelites.. burn some offal for me… I dig that smell“). Anyone like that ought to be locked up, and anyone who would worship anyone like that is a full-on moron.

Frankly if I wandered for forty years around a desert, cutting bits off the knobs of my male kiddies… and all I got for it was the shithole that is the modern-day apartheid state of ‘Israel’, I would turn around and head back to Egypt, apologise to Pharoah, and try to get a job on the Pyramids.

As an aside – have you ever wondered why it is that people accept the Moses story word for word, when if some inbred unshaven hillbilly from the Ozarks told the same story we would laugh at him? 

Imagine if some bloke turned up in the middle of Gunnedah with a couple of sheets of Gyprock with scribble on them, and claimed that he got them from a disembodied voice behind a burning tree.

Anyway – enough about Sky Wizard delusions for now. Let’s have a giggle at the clowns who think that the worst economic news is out there (and thatthe market looks forward, and discounts all available information…)… let’s just giggle at those who believe every cockamamie line of bullshit that CNBC, Bloomberg and Sky Business can throw at them. After all, they’ve been right for… how long exactly? Less than a week.

At the end of the day, CNBC, Sky News, Bloomberg and the rest of the noiseworks are a bit like a caged chimp flinging shit at passers-by; they are creatures driven by their environment (which takes the form of a memo from on high saying “Get out there and read that flucking autocue like your career depends on it, blondie”).

Yes – I am annoyed, now that you ask…

Major Market Indices

The broad market – the All Ordinaries (XAO) – surged a whopping 126.6 points (3.69%), finishing at 3553.8 points. The index hit an intraday high of 3568.1 at 3:25 pm, while the low for the day was 3481.5 – set at 10:04 am Sydney time when halfthe stocks in the market weren’t even open. So today the Opening Orgasm actually led to some follow through.

The awful truth is that da Boyz have to let the breakout nuffies win once in a while – otherwise they (the nuffies) would learn to avoid diving in at the open, and that would impinge on da Boyz’ long-term profits. 

It sucks rancid goats’ balls that it had to be today though… SPISpy had a crack at a short scalp starting at midday and is still holding it.

It’s actually not that painful at the moment – the after-market SPI retraced to 3632 within minutes of the day session close – which means that it’s going to drop further. 

The SPISpy entry was between 3619 and 3626 with a most-likely entry at 3624. The SPI was at 3612 less than ten minutes later, but I am not going to claim the 10-point first target until the SPI is ten points below the low of the noon 1-minute bar (that would require a fall to 3608).

Total volume traded on the ASX was 1.13bn units, 0.8% below its 10-day average of 1.14bn shares.The ASX’s daily listing of all stocks included 1023 different 3-letter FPO’s which traded (i.e., had non-zero trade volume). Of these, 456 issues rose, with volume in rising issues totalling 625.8m units; there were 360 declining stocks, which traded aggregate declining volume of 411.6m shares.

Of the 488 All Ordinaries components, 263 rose while 144 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the gainers by a margin of 2.3:1, with 570.66m shares traded in gainers while 245.1m shares traded in the day’s losers.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SPI – the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) – hurtled skyward to the tune of 141.7 points (4.06%), closing out the session at 3631.6 points.

GT Intraday Chart
Name Close +/-(%)
All Ordinaries 3553.80 126.60 (3.7%)
ASX 20 2198.90 87.40 (4.1%)
ASX 50 3689.70 147.80 (4.2%)
ASX 100 3000.60 116.90 (4.1%)
ASX 200 3631.60 141.70 (4.1%)
ASX 300 3608.80 138.30 (4.0%)
ASX Mid-Cap 50 3228.20 98.20 (3.1%)
ASX Small Ordinaries 1604.00 48.60 (3.1%)

The “heavy hitters” of the Australian market – the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) – had a bit of a moonshot, stacking on 87.4 points (4.14%), closing out the session at 2198.9 points.

Among the 20 big guns, things were relatively upbeat: only one index component sought to rain on the bull’s parade. The stocks which make up the index traded a total of 130.55m units; 20 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 129.39m shares, while the sole declining stock traded 1.16m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Woodside Petroleum (WPL), +$2.59 (8.5%) to $33.05 on volume of 2.4 million shares;
  • CSL (CSL), +$1.96 (6.21%) to $33.53 on volume of 1.7 million shares;
  • Commonwealth Bank Of Australia (CBA), +$1.90 (6.15%) to $32.80 on volume of 4.8 million shares;
  • Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC), +$1.03 (6.11%) to $17.88 on volume of 9.6 million shares; and
  • National Australia Bank (NAB), +$1.15 (5.81%) to $20.96 on volume of 9.3 million shares.

On the less salubrious side of the big-cap fence, there was only one decliner within the index:

  • Macquarie Group (MQG), -$0.18 (0.6%) to $29.90 on volume of 1.2 million shares.

The ASX Small Ordinaries (XSO) The small end of the market slightly underperformed its large-cap counterpart. The Small Ords still had a good run, stacking on 48.6 points (3.12%), closing out the session at 1604 points.

Among the stocks that make up the Small Caps index, 123 index components finished to the upside, and of the rest, 63 closed lower for the session.

The 208 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 260.52m units: volume in the 123 gainers was 166.41m shares, with volume of 67.35m units in the index’s 63 declining components. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Abacus Property Group (ABP), +$0.04 (18.6%) to $0.26 on volume of 2.5 million shares;
  • NRW Holdings (NWH), +$0.03 (14.63%) to $0.24 on volume of 2 million shares;
  • TEN Network Holdings (TEN), +$0.15 (14.01%) to $1.18 on volume of 1.5 million shares;
  • GUD Holdings (GUD), +$0.60 (13.42%) to $5.07 on volume of 169.6 thousand shares; and
  • Paperlinx (PPX), +$0.13 (13.37%) to $1.06 on volume of 2.2 million shares.

In the red-zone of the little-stock index, the
following list represents the biggest downers (in terms of percentage decline):

  • Mirabela Nickel (MBN), -$0.13 (13.51%) to $0.80 on volume of 130.4 thousand shares;
  • ING Real Estate Community Living Group (ILF), -$0.01 (12.99%) to $0.07 on volume of 3.2 million shares;
  • AJ Lucas Group (AJL), -$0.5 (11.9%) to $3.70 on volume of 180.4 thousand shares;
  • Straits Resources (SRL), -$0.1 (10.38%) to $0.82 on volume of 1.8 million shares; and
  • Panoramic Resources (PAN), -$0.09 (10%) to $0.81 on volume of 1 million shares.

Index Changes
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
XAO All Ordinaries 3553.8 126.6 3.69 870.1m
XFL ASX 50 3689.7 147.8 4.17 302.6m
XJO ASX 200 3631.6 141.7 4.06 763.7m
XKO ASX 300 3608.8 138.3 3.99 839m
XMD ASX Mid-Cap 50 3228.2 98.2 3.14 287.3m
XSO ASX Small Ordinaries 1604 48.6 3.12 249.2m
XTL ASX 20 2198.9 87.4 4.14 125.9m
XTO ASX 100 3000.6 116.9 4.05 589.9m
Market Breadth
ASX20 XTO XJO XAO XSO Market
Advances 20 85 166 263 123 456
Declines 1 13 32 144 63 360
Advancing Volume 129.4m 413.4m 541.5m 570.7m 166.4m 625.8m
Declining Volume 1.2m 167.3m 208.4m 245.1m 67.3m 411.6m
GICS Industry Indices

Among the 11 industry indices, it was green across the board, as every sector managed to keep its head above water.

The best performing index was Energy (XEJ), which added 637.8 points (5.79%) to 11662.7 points. The 19 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 46.66m units; 16 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 45.34m shares, while the 3 decliners had volume traded totalling 1.32m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Nexus Energy (NXS), +$0.04 (9.59%) to $0.40 on volume of 2.2 million shares;
  • Worleyparsons (WOR), +$1.04 (9.24%) to $12.30 on volume of 2 million shares;
  • Santos (S
    TO
    ), +$1.10 (9.05%) to $13.25 on volume of 5.2 million shares;
  • Woodside Petroleum (WPL), +$2.59 (8.5%) to $33.05 on volume of 2.4 million shares; and
  • Felix Resources (FLX), +$0.52 (7%) to $7.95 on volume of 1.4 million shares.

Second in the index leadership stakes was Industrials (XNJ), which gained 156.6 points (5.26%) to 3131.3 points. The 32 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 82.81m units; 28 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 78.32m shares, while the 3 decliners had volume traded totalling 3.85m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Leighton Holdings (LEI), +$3.13 (14.69%) to $24.44 on volume of 801.7 thousand shares;
  • NRW Holdings (NWH), +$0.03 (14.63%) to $0.24 on volume of 2 million shares;
  • Boart Longyear (BLY), +$0.03 (12.82%) to $0.22 on volume of 10.1 million shares;
  • Toll Holdings (TOL), +$0.68 (12.27%) to $6.22 on volume of 4.6 million shares; and
  • Asciano Group (AIO), +$0.11 (10.48%) to $1.16 on volume of 2.4 million shares.

The bronze medal for today goes to Healthcare (XHJ), which climbed 387.7 points (4.84%) to 8391.8 points. The 9 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 9.98m units; 9 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 9.98m shares, none of the stocks in the index lost ground. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • CSL (CSL), +$1.96 (6.21%) to $33.53 on volume of 1.7 million shares;
  • Sigma Pharmaceuticals Ltd (SIP), +$0.06 (5.29%) to $1.10 on volume of 2.3 million shares;
  • Ramsay Health Care (RHC), +$0.47 (5.16%) to $9.58 on volume of 312.5 thousand shares;
  • Ansell (ANN), +$0.48 (3.93%) to $12.68 on volume of 1.1 million shares; and
  • ResMed Inc. (RMD), +$0.21 (3.9%) to $5.60 on volume of 1.2 million shares.

As mentioned above, there were no declining sectors today – so we can move on down to the Asian market stuff now.

Sector Indices
Code GICS Sector Close +/- % Volume
XEJ Energy 11662.7 637.8 5.79 47m
XNJ Industrials 3131.3 156.6 5.26 83m
XHJ Healthcare 8391.8 387.7 4.84 10m
XXJ Financials ex Property Trusts 4045.2 185.9 4.82 94m
XMJ Materials 7776.1 292.5 3.91 162m
XDJ Consumer Discretionary 1146 41.4 3.75 62m
XSJ Consumer Staples 6174.7 193 3.23 30m
XIJ Information Technology 392.1 9.4 2.46 2m
XTJ Telecommunications 1409.8 29.5 2.14 27m
XPJ Property Trusts 921.7 13.4 1.48 207m
XUJ Utilities 4185.9 60.4 1.46 50m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
DXS Dexus Property Group 0.88 0.06 6.67 36.5m
GPT GPT Group 0.81 -0.03 -3.01 25.7m
BBI Babcock & Brown Infrastructure Group 0.07 -0.01 -10.98 25.6m
TLS Telstra Corporation. 4.22 0.10 2.43 22.9m
IOF ING Office Fund 0.84 -0.18 -17.65 21.2m
All Ords Percentage Gainers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
EBB Everest Babcock & Brown 0.05 0.01 25 1.6m
ABP Abacus Property Group 0.26 0.04 18.6 2.5m
NFK Norfolk Group 0.17 0.03 17.86 952.7k
ARR Arasor International 0.04 0.01 16.67 34.5k
LEI Leighton Holdings 24.44 3.13 14.69 801.7k
All Ords Percentage Losers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
BNB Babcock & Brown 0.17 -0.09 -35.29 21m
SPH Sphere Investments 0.31 -0.12 -28.24 497.7k
AVM Anvil Mining 1.14 -0.36 -24 10k
IOF ING Office Fund 0.84 -0.18 -17.65 21.2m
SHV Select Harvests 2.56 -0.42 -14.09 33.2k

OzRant: Nope. I’m NOT Buyin’…

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Tonight, subscribers will receive a detailed e-mail which will reveal why there was no signal for SPISpyers to initiate a long position and why hedges were not removed from the Rant Model Portfolios, which remain 100% hedged. 

As I have mentioned before, these portfolios were 100% hedged since the now-famous “OzRant: Rally. Over. !!I!!Eleventy!!…” post on February 28th. How many folks out there have had portfolios that were 100% insulated against market-wide risk since the All Ords was 5880

Drink that in, folks. And since you all know that your beloved GT has a deep-value bias anyhow, you will find that yes, we hedged away market risk, but we retained long positions in stocks with significant dividend yields – stocks which have outperformed the market (even though the portfolios would have declined if left unhedged, they declined by 15% less than the market).

Well now… I do believe that my target of 3400 (basis ASX200) was achieved. In spades. In fact, it was breached with a vengeance within minutes of the open. The market then tried to rally (in fact its rally was pretty impressive – from 3329 to 3391 in a little over 90 minutes.

In the context (a huge decline day), a 60-point rally in 90 minutes would ordinarily be viewed as evidence of the stench of Hope. However the bounce evaporated after midday, and the slide to the close was inexorable – but it was far too gentle. 

I would have much preferred to see a genuine lurch downwards into the close, as was the case in the US market this morning – but that did not happen. If the closing behaviour had shown absolute panic and a waterfall decline, we would be long right now and the Rant Model Portfolios would now be back to unhedged. As it is, we will have to wait – because although there might be a bounce, I now think that there is significant further downside – quite possibly a break of the 2002 lows on the US indices, which would mean that equities would be at their lowest levels since 1996.

So we go back to “wait and see”, despite the apparent bloodbath today (and last night). That’s just how it is.

Major Market Indices

The broad market – the All Ordinaries (XAO) – dropped sharply, losing 150.6 points (4.32%), finishing at 3332.6 points. The index hit an intraday high of 3391.9 at 12:01 pm, while the low for the day was 3328.4 – set at 10:30 am Sydney time.

Let’s take a detailed, step by step gander at the breadth and internals – so that we can see if we can tick off all the boxes that I have outlined previously (big volume, massive downside tilt in advance-decline stats and volume). 

Internals…

Total volume traded on the ASX was 1.57bn units, 31.1% above its 10-day average of 1.19bn shares. 

High volume decline day… that ticks the first box for ‘Operation Capitulation’.

The ASX’s daily listing of all stocks included 1205 different 3-letter FPO’s which traded (i.e., had non-zero trade volume). Of these, 182 issues rose, while there were 785 declining stocks.

Big tilt toward decliners: decliners outnumbered advancers by 4.3:1… place a tick in box 2.

Volume in rising issues was 231.5m shares, and volume in declining stocks was 1.08bn shares.

Big volume tilt towards decliners: declining volume outpaced advancing volume by 4.68:1… place a tick in box 3.

The internals seem to check out – precisely what I have been banging on about for weeks. And yet in the prefatory remarks I make it clear that I think it’s not a bottom. 

So let’s go to the other indices.

Of the 489 All Ordinaries components, 65 rose while 356 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the losers by a margin of 6.1:1, with 154.74m shares traded in gainers while 945.57m shares traded in the day’s losers.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SPI Futures – the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) – dipped rather savagely, losing 146.7 points (4.19%), closing out the session at 3352.9 points.

GT Intraday Chart
Name Close +/-(%)
All Ordinaries 3332.60 -150.60 (4.3%)
ASX 20 1989.70 -101.10 (4.8%)
ASX 50 3356.30 -157.40 (4.5%)
ASX 100 2754.20 -121.90 (4.2%)
ASX 200 3352.90 -146.70 (4.2%)
ASX 300 3335.90 -146.90 (4.2%)
ASX Mid-Cap 50 3175.90 -78.20 (2.4%)
ASX Small Ordinaries 1609.70 -67.50 (4.0%)

The “heavy hitters” of the Australian market – the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) – was taken to the woodshed, dropping 101.1 points (4.84%), closing out the session at 1989.7 points.

The 21 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 214.27m units; just 3 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 13.44m shares. The 17 decliners had volume traded totalling 198.55m units. The percentage gainers within the index were

  • Macquarie Group (MQG), +$1.84 (7.31%) to $27.00 on volume of 2.6 million shares;
  • Suncorp-Metway. (SUN), +$0.25 (3.62%) to $7.15 on volume of 5.6 million shares; and
  • QBE Insurance Group (QBE), +$0.46 (2.06%) to $22.80 on volume of 5.2 million shares.

On the less salubrious side of the big-cap fence, the following stocks were the worst-performed within the index:

  • Rio Tinto (RIO), -$8.65 (13.13%) to $57.25 on volume of 5.1 million shares;
  • Woodside Petroleum (WPL), -$3.28 (9.67%) to $30.65 on volume of 2.9 million shares;
  • Wesfarmers (WES), -$1.72 (9.19%) to $17.00 on volume of 3.7 million shares;
  • BHP Billiton (BHP), -$2.1 (9.05%) to $21.10 on volume of 27.3 million shares; and
  • ANZ Banking Group (ANZ), -$0.82 (5.93%) to $13.00 on volume of 16.8 million shares.

The ASX Small Ordinaries (XSO) outperformed the big end of town, sliding 67.5 points (4.02%), closing out the session at 1609.7 points. 

The 209 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 349.12m units: volume in the 22 gainers totalling 34.16m shares, with trade totalling 279.61m units in the index’s 171 declining components. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Australand Property Group (ALZ), +$0.04 (10.77%) to $0.36 on volume of 2.6 million shares;
  • JB Hi-Fi (JBH), +$0.52 (7.24%) to $7.70 on volume of 976.7 thousand shares;
  • Bunnings Warehouse Property Trust (BWP), +$0.10 (5.65%) to $1.78 on volume of 719.6 thousand shares;
  • Invocare (IVC), +$0.21 (4.38%) to $5.00 on volume of 389.8 thousand shares; and
  • Panoramic Resources (PAN), +$0.04 (4.21%) to $0.99 on volume of 1.2 million shares.

In the red-zone of the little-stock index, the following list represents the biggest downers (in terms of percentage decline):

  • Babcock & Brown Power (BBP), -$0.01 (30.43%) to $0.03 on volume of 15.2 million shares;
  • Marion Energy (MAE), -$0.06 (29.73%) to $0.13 on volume of 5.9 million shares;
  • Coeur D’Alene Mines Corporation (CXC), -$0.21 (25.3%) to $0.62 on volume of 195.2 thousand shares;
  • Becton Property Group (BEC), -$0.02 (22.67%) to $0.06 on volume of 1.7 million shares; and
  • Aditya Birla Minerals (ABY), -$0.03 (22.22%) to $0.11 on volume of 1.7 million shares.

Index Changes
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
XAO All Ordinaries 3332.6 -150.6 -4.32 1199m
XFL ASX 50 3356.3 -157.4 -4.48 517.3m
XJO ASX 200 3352.9 -146.7 -4.19 1037.2m
XKO ASX 300 3335.9 -146.9 -4.22 1150.6m
XMD ASX Mid-Cap 50 3175.9 -78.2 -2.4 293.6m
XSO ASX Small Ordinaries 1609.7 -67.5 -4.02 339.7m
XTL ASX 20 1989.7 -101.1 -4.84 206.5m
XTO ASX 100 2754.2 -121.9 -4.24 810.9m
Market Breadth
ASX20 XTO XJO XAO XSO Market
Advances 3 20 37 65 22 182
Declines 17 71 154 356 171 785
Advancing Volume 13.4m 119.5m 141.9m 154.7m 34.2m 231.5m
Declining Volume 198.5m 643.9m 840.1m 945.6m 279.6m 1.08bn
GICS Industry Indices

Among the 11 industry indices, the news was universally negative: not a single sector managed to break into the “Win” column.

Since none of the industry sectors registered a gain for the session, there is no point in burdening ourselves with the internal behaviour of advancing sectors… on to the losers.

The worst-performed index for the session was Materials (XMJ), which dipped 523.9 points (7.25%) to 6701.9 points. The 45 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 295.17m units; The 34 decliners had volume traded totalling 239.42m units, and 8 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 47.09
m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • Coeur d’Alene Mines Corporation (CXC), -$0.21 (25.3%) to $0.62 on volume of 195.2 thousand shares;
  • Mount Gibson Iron (MGX), -$0.06 (20.75%) to $0.21 on volume of 9.3 million shares;
  • Platinum Australia (PLA), -$0.09 (16.83%) to $0.42 on volume of 1.9 million shares;
  • OZ Minerals (OZL), -$0.11 (16.67%) to $0.53 on volume of 84 million shares; and
  • PanAust Ltd (PNA), -$0.03 (14.71%) to $0.15 on volume of 20.4 million shares.

Just missing out on the wooden spoon was Energy (XEJ), which slid 719.8 points (6.05%) to 11180.2 points. The 19 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 52.8m units; The 18 decliners had volume traded totalling 47.09m units, and volume in the lone rising index component was 0m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • Nexus Energy (NXS), -$0.09 (17.35%) to $0.41 on volume of 5.1 million shares;
  • Paladin Energy (PDN), -$0.36 (16.29%) to $1.85 on volume of 7 million shares;
  • Linc Energy Ltd (LNC), -$0.44 (15.49%) to $2.40 on volume of 1.3 million shares;
  • Riversdale Mining (RIV), -$0.31 (14.16%) to $1.88 on volume of 1.5 million shares; and
  • Worleyparsons (WOR), -$1.33 (10.01%) to $11.96 on volume of 2.5 million shares.

Third-to-last amongst the sector indices was Healthcare (XHJ), which slid 354.6 points (4.15%) to 8182.4 points. The 9 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 18.28m units; The 6 decliners had volume traded totalling 11.19m units, and 2 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 3.88m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • CSL (CSL), -$2.06 (5.9%) to $32.88 on volume of 3.7 million shares;
  • Cochlear (COH), -$2.92 (5.52%) to $50.01 on volume of 470.2 thousand shares;
  • ResMed Inc. (RMD), -$0.19 (3.49%) to $5.26 on volume of 2.3 million shares;
  • Ramsay Health Care (RHC), -$0.24 (2.33%) to $10.06 on volume of 543.9 thousand shares; and
  • Ansell (ANN), -$0.22 (1.77%) to $12.23 on volume of 867.9 thousand shares.
Sector Indices
Code GICS Sector Close +/- % Volume
XNJ Industrials 3112.9 -52.7 -1.66 135m
XIJ Information Technology 374 -8.7 -2.27 4m
XPJ Property Trusts 956.1 -25.2 -2.57 181m
XDJ Consumer Discretionary 1061 -31.5 -2.88 60m
XUJ Utilities 4284.3 -131.9 -2.99 86m
XTJ Telecommunications 1332.7 -42.4 -3.08 68m
XSJ Consumer Staples 5895.8 -200.8 -3.29 42m
XXJ Financials ex Property Trusts 3607.8 -126.6 -3.39 105m
XHJ Healthcare 8182.4 -354.6 -4.15 18m
XEJ Energy 11180.2 -719.8 -6.05 53m
XMJ Materials 6701.9 -523.9 -7.25 295m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
OZL OZ Minerals 0.53 -0.11 -16.67 84m
TLS Telstra Corporation. 3.97 -0.13 -3.17 55.2m
BBI Babcock & Brown Infrastructure Group 0.03 -0.01 -27.66 52m
GPT GPT Group 1.04 -0.01 -0.48 32.2m
BHP BHP Billiton 21.10 -2.10 -9.05 27.3m
All Ords Percentage Gainers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
PBD Port Bouvard 0.19 0.04 26.67 1.3m
CPR Clive Peeters 0.10 0.02 18.75 92k
FEA Forest Enterprises 0.37 0.06 17.74 17k
NFK Norfolk Group 0.43 0.05 13.16 119.3k
MAFCA Multiplex Prime Property Fund 0.10 0.01 11.11 39.6k
All Ords Percentage Losers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
TTY Territory Resources 0.10 -0.05 -31.03 855.4k
BBP Babcock & Brown Power 0.03 -0.01 -30.43 15.2m
MAE Marion Energy 0.13 -0.06 -29.73 5.9m
BBI Babcock & Brown Infrastructure Group 0.03 -0.01 -27.66 52m
KMN Kings Minerals NL 0.05 -0.02 -25.71 96.1k
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